According to a recent FDIC memo, its Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be negative as of September 30th 2009:
Fund Balance/Reserve Ratio Projections
Pursuant to these requirements, staff estimates that both the Fund balance and the reserve ratio as of September 30, 2009, will be negative. This reflects, in part, an increase in provisioning for anticipated failures. In contrast, cash and marketable securities available to resolve failed institutions remain positive.
Staff has also projected the Fund balance and reserve ratio for each quarter over the next several years using the most recently available information on expected failures and loss rates and statistical analyses of trends in CAMELS downgrades, failure rates and loss rates. Staff projects that, over the period 2009 through 2013, the Fund could incur approximately $100 billion in failure costs. Staff projects that most of these costs will occur in 2009 and 2010. Approximately $25 billion of the $100 billion amount has already been incurred in failure costs so far in 2009. Staff projects that most of these costs will occur in 2009 and 2010.
(…and of course the $100 billion in anticipated failure cost will at some point also turn out to be too low and will be adjusted upwards again.)
This is explosive material. This whole thing has been sizzling hot since August 14th. Let’s see how much longer they can patch it up until it blows up in our faces …