CIOInsight.com reports Gartner, Forrester Revise IT Spending Forecasts:
Two of the biggest analyst firms recently adjusted their IT spending predictions, and though the numbers vary slightly, consensus is that things don’t look great for 2009.
Predictions for 2009:
- Gartner: Worldwide IT spending will total $3.2 trillion, down 6% from last year. (The March release estimated only a 3.8% decline)
- Forrester: global IT spending will drop 10.6% this year. (Down from a previously estimated 3%)
- Forrester: US IT spending will drop by about 5.1% (previous estimate: 3%)
- Gartner: Mild recovery next year, 2.3% gain in spending
- Gartner: Computer hardware will suffer the most, falling by 16.3% to $317.8 billion
- Forrester: Computer hardware purchases to drop by 13.5%
- Gartner: IT services market will drop by 8.2%
- Forrester: IT services market will drop by 8.5%
- Gartner Conclusion: “While the global economic downturn shows signs of easing, this year IT budgets are still being cut and consumers will need a lot more persuading before they can fell confident enough to loosen their purse strings”
- Forrester Conclusion: “While Q1 2009 saw a scary drop in purchases in the US tech market, ironically that is good news for the long run and we expect to see a stronger rebound sooner. The big drops are not precursors to further declines; rather, we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in US tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in Q4 as businesses realize that they overreacted in the first quarter”
My comment: For 2009 the truth may lie somewhere in between the two institutes’ forecasts. But regading the coming years: Unless we get some temporary and short-lived recovery, expect Forrester and Gartner to revise their estimates down again.