Markets took a slight hit today. The significant event of the week, maybe even of this quarter was a lousy auction for bonds maturing on 05/15/2039.
They traded as low as 4.13% before the auction and went as high as 4.30% to close at 4.26%, or 13 basis points higher.
Some random observations/expectations:
– Tech stocks, which lead the recent rally, lead the decline today.
– Short interest on some stocks is remarkably low
– In particular I am monitoring commercial property businesses, such as Simon Properties Group, and Vornado, both of them have a short interest of close to 0% in spite of the impending commercial property crunchtime.
– Jobs data on Friday will probably report something between 400,000 to 600,000 nonfarm jobs lost again, based on today’s ADP jobs report.
Nonfarm private employment decreased 491,000 from March to April 2009 on a seasonally
adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of
employment from February to March was revised by 34,000, from a decline of 742,000 to a
decline of 708,000
Whether these are signs that the recent bear market rally is coming to an end…only time will tell.