PIMCO Admits: Betting Against Treasurys Was a Mistake
September 1, 2011 · Posted in Investing
I have been consistently bullish on US Treasurys.
PIMCO now says that betting against US debt was a mistake:
Showing a more bearish view on the U.S. economy, Gross said PIMCO had initially dumped all of its U.S. debt holdings in March as he expected economic growth to be higher, resulting in inflation down the road.
That decision greatly undermined the performance of PIMCO’s Total Return Fund. As Treasuries prices rallied, the fund lost 0.97 percent in the past four weeks, while the benchmark Barclay’s U.S. Aggregated Bond Index rose 0.23 percent in the same period, according to Lipper data.
So far this year, the fund has returned 3.29 percent, less than the 4.55 percent recorded by the Barclay’s benchmark index.
“When you’re underperforming the index, you go home at night and cry in your beer,” the Financial Times, in its online edition, quoted Gross as saying. “It’s not fun, but who said this business should be fun. We’re too well paid to hang our heads and say boo hoo.”
Gross, who oversees $1.2 trillion at PIMCO, said it was “pretty obvious” he wishes he had more Treasuries in his portfolio right now.
Like I’ve said many times before, I think Treasury yields will stay low for much longer than people expect. Global flight to safety, over indebtedness, credit deflation or rather outright deflation, recessions, depressions … all these are bullish for cash and near-cash assets (of the world’s reserve currency), such as Treasury Bonds/Notes/Bills, and of course the mother of all cash … gold.
PIMCOs announcement above may be a nice contrarian indicator to get out of Treasurys for a little while … but then why would you want to daytrade such an investment … relax :)