Red Alert Off – Federal Budget Deficit Normalizes From Previous Quarter

End of March I pointed out that economic numbers indicated a disastrous drop in net private saving, foreshadowing a recession unless things change quickly.

It looks like things have changed quickly this past quarter (Q1 2018), plus there seem to have been revisions to Q4 numbers. The federal budget deficit has expanded sharply to -$1.1 trillion which should take us out of the danger zone for now:

The current account deficit has expanded a bit to -$569 billion:

This means that net private saving (Fed data not yet available) will come in at around $531 billion, a level that hasn’t been seen since 2013.

Red alert is off, numbers are looking good again, for now.


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