Why the US Dollar WON’T Collapse | Rebuttal to Mike Maloney and Stefan Molyneux

A rebuttal to “Why the US Dollar Will Collapse” with Mike Maloney interviewed by Stefan Molyneux on Freedomain Radio. Mike and Stef cover various economic issues from a classical/Austrian viewpoint of economics which all draw the same conclusion: the US dollar is going to collapse SOON.

Watch their video here.

Dylan Moore of the Volitional Science Network and Nima Mahjour of economicsjunkie.com provide evidence to rebut many of the points brought up in the video:

1. Why the Federal Reserve is NOT a private bank
2. Why the Fed DOES NOT “print money”
3. Why interest rates are not a useful metric for predicting economic stability
4. Why the Fed can only “push” interest rates UP, not down
5. The myth of fractional reserve banking
6. The myth of the barter theory of money
7. Why the Fed is not causing inflation
8. Why the evidence points to US dollar NOT CRASHING

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Mish: Expect Continued Rally in US Dollar

I second everything Mish says in his latest post:

Those who think the Australian dollar or the Canadian dollar are some sort of safe haven will find out otherwise.

China is in a credit bubble and when it pops it will take commodities and commodity producing currencies down with it.
Australia’s property bubble has already popped, and a commercial real estate implosion will follow with a lag, just as happened in the US. Canada will join the implosion party as well.
The Canadian and Australian central banks will respond with liquidity measures or interest rate cuts, sending the currencies lower.

There is no reason to like the Euro, the Yen, the Australian dollar, or the Canadian dollar.

For that matter there is no reason to like the US dollar except things are about to get worse than expected everywhere else. That coupled with a messy default setup in Europe and a Fed that did “less than expected” on Wednesday are sufficient reasons to expect a rising US dollar.

… along with the Dollar I think gold will continue to do well also.

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Dollar, Gold, Treasurys Continue to Act Well

The Dollar

It’s important to cut out the noise you hear in the media from people who are incapable of looking at events past the duration of a week or so.

The dollar has been taking a break from its long term rally against the Euro, but continues to stay within the trading range that I have been eying for a while.

dollar-chart

It’s even possible that the Dollar falls further against the Euro to somewhere around 1.45, and then again rises to levels below 1.20.

Gold

Well, what should I say about gold. It continues to rise to record levels, hitting $1344 on Friday, while those who don’t understand the concepts of money and in particular gold during deflation angrily observe the trend with clueless stares.

gld-2

Treasury Yields

Treasury yields have hit a 20 month low and are now at 2.38 percent.

oct-2010

The alarm bells are ringing for equities … once more.

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China to Float Yuan More Freely – Roubini Predicts: Yuan Appreciation Against Dollar Unlikely – I Say: Yuan Has Already Begun Depreciating

Reuters writes China forex move could thwart U.S. hopes – Roubini:

China’s decision to move away from its currency peg might mean the yuan weakens against the dollar instead of strengthens as Washington wants, Nouriel Roubini, one of Wall Street’s most closely followed economists, said on Saturday.

China said on Saturday it would gradually make the yuan more flexible after pegging it to the dollar for nearly two years, a move that the U.S. government and others around the world have long been calling for.

“This is the first significant signal in years of a change in Chinese currency policy,” Roubini, best known for having predicted the U.S. housing meltdown, told Reuters.

But it remains to be seen how China would put the new system into practice including the composition of a basket of currencies that Beijing will use as a reference point for the yuan — also known as the renminbi — and the base date for that basket, he said in an e-mail.

“Since they have not changed the previous range for the band — plus or minus 0.5 percent — most likely on Monday China will allow the renminbi vs U.S. dollar to move,” said Roubini.

The yuan has risen sharply in recent months against the euro, which sank over Europe’s debt problems, so a stronger yuan could not be taken for granted, he said.

If the euro were to continue to depreciate, “the renminbi would have to be allowed to depreciate relative to the dollar, a paradoxical outcome,” Roubini said.

His comments echoed those of an adviser to China’s central bank on Saturday.

Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, told Reuters in Beijing that the yuan could depreciate against the dollar if the euro falls sharply against the U.S. currency.

Roubini, like other analysts, said a major strengthening of the yuan looked unlikely.

“Even if the Chinese were to allow a gradual renminbi appreciation relative to the U.S. dollar, the size of such appreciation would be modest over the next year, not more than 3 or 4 percent as the trade surplus has shrunk, growth is likely to slow down on China and labor/employment unrest remains of concern to the Chinese.”

For more on this see my own predictions on this particular matter.

July 2009 – China Pegging Yuan to Dollar Again?

The stabilization of the Dollar against the Yuan has almost coincided the reversal of the Dollar’s fall against other major currencies. It thus appears as if, since mid 2008, the Yuan/Dollar peg has been reinstated and continues to be in place as these lines are written. What is also noteworthy is that the US current account deficit has been declining sharply since then.

A first look at the above chart leads one to believe that Chinese and US authorities aimed at putting an end to the fall of the Dollar, and thus intervened accordingly. However, another possibility which I would like to propose is that the Dollar had fundamentally and truly begun to stabilize at the level of RMB 6.83 at that point and was actually in for a major revaluation upwards. Thus the current intervention by Chinese authorities could actually be aiming at a stabilization of its own currency at a higher level than the market would mandate.

Some points fundamentally support the thesis that the dollar should gain in value against the major currencies:

– Global deleveraging is driving investors from other currencies back to the Dollar
Deflation hitting the US first, and other countries only later
– Imports into the US are falling rapidly
– Significant domestic spending sprees by the Chinese government

All this may indicate that if the Chinese government were to let the Yuan float freely at some point, it may actually drop significantly against the US Dollar. Such an event could possibly be the ignition for a significant Dollar rally in the years to come.

The Reuters article is also in line with something I pointed out recently:

An interesting side effect of the Dollar rally is what’s happening to Chinese exports. Since its currency is pegged to the US Dollar, the Yuan is strengthening against the Euro which is hurting the powerful Chinese export lobbyists.

Bottom line: The supposed Yuan devaluation everyone seems to be expecting, were the Yuan to be freely floated, is simply not gonna happen!

Luckily, such predictions are testable. Let’s see how we are doing so far. Let’s observe the direction the Dollar has begun to take against the Yuan:

dollar-yuan-06-2010

Let’s see if the trend holds up …

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Dollar Rally – Iranian Central Bank Dumps Euros, Buys Dollars

As a corollary effect to the current Dollar rally, Iran Selling 45 Billion Euros of Reserves for Dollars:

Iran’s central bank began the first phase of the 45 billion-euro ($55 billion) sale of some of its reserves for dollars, the state-run Jaam-e-Jam newspaper reported, citing people it didn’t identify.

The bank is selling 15 billion euros in the first of three stages, which will be completed by Sept. 22, the newspaper reported on its website on May 31.

Iran will “substantially” decrease its oil sales in euros, the paper said. It informed Japan and other crude-oil customers of the change, Jaam-e-Jam said. The Persian Gulf country’s euro reserves are 55 percent of the total, and would be reduced to 20 to 25 percent after the sale is complete and after oil sales in euros have been reduced, the paper said.

Iran’s shift out of euros has been prompted by the single currency’s decline, said Jaam-e-Jam, which is owned by the state broadcaster. Other central banks, including those of the Persian Gulf states, also are selling their euro reserves, it said.

The euro was little changed against the dollar, rising 0.1 percent to $1.2241 at 12:45 p.m. in New York.

The euro made up 27.4 percent of global currency reserves at the end of 2009, according to the most recent data available from the International Monetary Fund. While that was down from 27.8 percent in September, it was up from 26.4 percent a year earlier.

Experts in Iran’s central bank have suggested the country buy gold because they forecast the precious metal’s price will increase, Jaam-e-Jam said.

Euro’s Decline

The euro has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year, reaching a four-year low yesterday, amid concern the debt crisis that started in Greece will spread to other nations and dent economic growth. The slide forced European Union leaders to piece together an almost $1 trillion loan package last month as confidence in the euro’s status as an alternative reserve currency to the dollar faded.

Gold is up 11 percent this year and is headed for a 10th annual gain, the longest rally since at least 1920. The metal reached a record $1,249.40 an ounce on May 14 and traded at $1,223.05 an ounce in London today.

In essence, Iranian central bankers are jumping on the boat of the deflation trade

I still think that a healthy mix of gold, Dollars, and Treasurys is the right recipe to protect one’s wealth in these turbulent times.

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