EU Launches Frantic Bazooka – Euro Gives Up Early Gains
Europe Pulls Out Bazooka Part II in 3D
Since Euro countries are grappling with deficits, they are vowing to spend more money to fight the consequences of deficits, EU Crafts $962 Billion Show of Force to Halt Crisis:
European policy makers unveiled an unprecedented loan package worth almost $1 trillion and a program of bond purchases to stop a sovereign-debt crisis that threatened to shatter confidence in the euro. Stocks surged around the world, the euro strengthened and commodities rallied.
Jolted by last week’s slide in the currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, European Union finance chiefs met in a 14-hour session in Brussels overnight. The 16 euro nations agreed in a statement to offer as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion), including International Monetary Fund backing, to countries facing instability and the European Central Bank said it will buy government and private debt.
The rescue package for Europe’s sovereign debtors comes little more than a year after the waning of the last crisis, caused by the U.S. mortgage-market collapse, which wreaked $1.8 trillion of global credit losses and writedowns. Under U.S. and Asian pressure to stabilize markets, Europe’s governments bet their show of force would prevent a sovereign-debt collapse and muffle speculation the 11-year-old euro might break apart.
“A very thick line has been drawn in the sand,” said Andrew Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. and a former ECB official. “This is all in. What more could they have done?”
A 110 billion-euro bailout package for Greece approved last week by the EU and IMF failed to reassure investors, prompting yesterday’s renewed bid to bolster the euro.
How to Pay
“It might temporarily calm nerves but questions will come back later on how they will pay for this package when all of them need fiscal consolidation,” said Venkatraman Anantha- Nageswaran, who helps manage about $140 billion in assets as global chief investment officer at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Singapore.
The MSCI World Index climbed 2.6 percent to 1,128 at 12:15 p.m. in Brussels. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rallied 4.4 percent. The euro appreciated 2 percent to $1.30. Crude-oil futures gained 3.4 percent.
“The message has gotten through: the euro zone will defend its money,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters in Brussels early today after markets punished inaction last week.
ECB policy makers said they will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt, and the bank restarted a dollar-swap line with the Federal Reserve.
‘Overwhelming Force’
“This truly is overwhelming force, and should be more than sufficient to stabilize markets in the near term, prevent panic and contain the risk of contagion,” Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group in London, said in an e-mailed note. “This is Shock and Awe, Part II and in 3-D.”
…
Merkel’s Meeting
As Merkel’s cabinet held a late-night meeting in Berlin on the euro rescue, her party unexpectedly lost control of Germany’s most populous state in a regional election, potentially costing her a majority in the upper house of the federal parliament.
Goaded by Germany, the ministers made a fresh commitment to closer monitoring of government finances and more rigorous enforcement of the deficit-limitation rules.
The vow to push budget shortfalls below the euro’s 3 percent limit echoes promises that have been regularly broken ever since governments in 1999 set a three-year deadline for achieving balanced budgets. The euro region’s overall deficit is forecast at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and 6.1 percent in 2011.
Can you imagine? Governments that have regularly broken commitments to cut deficits? Unthinkable!
One thing’s for sure, as I said over 1 year ago:
The 3% ceiling won’t matter anymore from hereon. Consider the European stability treaty dead. One member state after another will violate the requirements. The fact that a bailout of some Euro states by others is discussed, just shows how torn this European Union really is, how severe its imbalances are. With discrepancies like these, it is completely unfeasible to maintain a currency union. The Euro will keep taking its beating for it.
The Euro
What are foreign exchange markets saying? Here’s the Euro today:
It rallied up as high as $1.31 on the announcement and has given up almost all those gains within a few hours already. This is volatility galore on the FX market!
This may be a result of frantic intervention on the part of the US, as the Federal Reserve opens credit line to Europe:
The Federal Reserve late Sunday opened a program to ship U.S. dollars to Europe in a move to head off a broader financial crisis on the continent.
Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan also are involved in the dollar swap effort.
The move comes after the European Union and International Monetary Fund pledged a nearly $1 trillion defense package for the embattled euro, hoping to calm jittery markets and halt attacks on the eurozone’s weakest members. The ECB also jumped into the bond market Sunday night, saying it is ready to buy eurozone bonds to shore up liquidity in “dysfunctional” markets.
The Fed’s action reopens a program put in place during the 2008 global financial crisis under which dollars are shipped overseas through the foreign central banks. In turn, these central banks can lend the dollars out to banks in their home countries that are in need of dollar funding to prevent the European crisis from spreading further.
The Fed said action is being taken “in response to the reemergence of strains in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets in Europe,” and to prevent the spread of that strain to other markets and financial centers.
A so-called “swap” line with the Bank of Canada provides up to $30 billion. Figures weren’t provided for the other central banks. The arrangements are authorized through January 2011.
The debt crisis first erupted in Greece. Fears that it could spread to Spain, Portugal and other eurozone countries. The crisis has pushed up demand for the U.S. dollar and has sharply weakened the value of the euro, the currency used by 16 European countries. Eurozone ministers and the IMF this weekend approved a $140 billion rescue package of loans to Greece for the next three years to keep it from imploding.
The Fed had wound down these crisis-era programs with other central banks in February, along with other emergency programs to get lending flowing more freely again and return stability to financial markets. At that time, financial strains in the United States were easing, and the Fed began to take steps to move policy closer to normal.
It also had begun to lay out a plan to reel in the unprecedented stimulus money pumped out during the crisis. The Fed’s balance sheet ballooned to $2.3 trillion, more than double where it stood before the crisis struck. The program reopened on Sunday will expand the Fed’s balance sheet, economists say. However, the program poses little credit risk to the Fed because the arrangements are with other central banks, they added.
It is doubtful whether these currency swaps have ever accomplished anything but a very very short term relief.
We hear European bureaucrats rail against evil speculators who are daring to question the stability of the system. This is all repetitive nonsense which we can shrug off with a smile. I have said before that a truly meaningful reform of capital markets would require that governments remove themselves from the equation, rather than becoming the only factor in that equation:
what needs to happen is to bring down what has brought about the financial crisis in the first place.
Who has created all the excess fiat money that flowed into the system to blow up price bubbles? The Federal Reserve Bank – so just close it down already!
Who has created all the excess credit that blew up the bubble? The fractional reserve banks – so just end the system of fractional reserve banking already!
Who has granted oligopoly status to the rating agencies who one after another failed to assess credit risk appropriately? The SEC – so end the credit rating cartel already!
In fact who has taken away oversight from the stock exchange companies to try and oversee all stock exchanges in the country, missing one giant fraud after another? Which organization was close to Making Bernie Madoff their chairman?? The SEC – so get rid of it already!
Even after some of the worst excesses of subprime lending, who proudly remains the sole subprime lender in the country? The government owned banks! – So close them down already!
Who has been propping up financial markets in secret over decades with taxpayer money, creating malinvestments and false incentives left and right? The mighty President’s Working Group on Financial Markets! – So get rid of it already!!
What is it that made the common man put so much money into the stock market? It comes to a large degree from the incentive through tax savings for retirement accounts. If the taxes weren’t there in the first place, surely people would think twice about transferring their hard earned and saved money over to Wall St.
On top of that a policy manipulating and suppressing interest rates makes it completely unattractive to put money into savings accounts, and encourages people to be foolish. – So again, stop meddling with the credit markets, get rid of the central bank and with it would go all fractional reserve lending.
Why do you think it is so hard for honest small businesses to obtain funding in a flexible and straightforward manner? Why does it feel to most people like they are secluded from the majority of the action while Wall St. thrives? It is because every single government policy aiming at financial regulation has been designed to herd money into the stock market and lock it up in there for the kids to play with.
Which institution, out of all, is the least capable to be responsible about its finances, stay out of debt, live within its means? … it is of course the government itself.
Folks, wake up to reality, leave fantasy island. Come to your senses and work toward closing down that institution which is the root cause of all your problems: Close down the government and all the things I pointed out above and many more evils would automatically go with it.
So long as people don’t make these simple connections, they need not be surprised about the same problems popping up again and again, with the same short sighted responses protracting the problems again and again, choking our productive capacity until the system comes to a painful halt.
Audit the Fed Ain’t Happening – Libertarians, Stop Hurting Your Head About It!
Earlier I received an email from AuditTheFed.com:
Dear Supporter of Transparency,
According to our sources on the Hill, Senator Bernie Sanders has unfortunately given in to pressure from the White House and Chris Dodd and stripped out the Paul-Grayson language from his Fed transparency amendment.
What Sanders is now proposing is essentially the Watt amendment the Audit the Fed Coalition opposed last year in the House.
Talking Points Memo reports that, “In order to allay some of the White House’s and the Fed’s concerns, Sanders has agreed to limit the scope of what the Government Accountability Office would be allowed to audit–but his plan will still require thorough review of all the Fed’s emergency lending, beginning December 1, 2007.”
Call Senator Sanders’ office at (202) 224-5141 and tell him how you feel about this last-minute compromise.
Click here for contact information for your senators and urge them to oppose this compromise. Tell them it’s time to support a standalone vote on S. 604, Audit the Fed.
A vote could come even late tonight or early tomorrow. Let your senators know where you stand right away.
The American people deserve a full, thorough audit.
Sincerely,
The Audit the Fed Coalition
The Wall Street Journal writes Plan for Congressional Audits of Fed Dies in Senate:
Last-minute maneuvering in the Senate allowed the Federal Reserve to sidestep legislation that would have exposed its interest-rate decision-making to congressional auditors.
Pressure from the Obama administration led Senate lawmakers to alter a provision pushed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) that was gaining momentum despite opposition from the Treasury and the Fed. It would have largely repealed a 32-year-old law that shields Fed monetary policy from congressional auditors.
The compromise, endorsed by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and the Treasury, would require the Fed to disclose more details about its lending during the financial crisis. It would also require a one-time audit of those loans and a one-time review of Fed governance. A formal vote was pushed back until next week.
Thursday’s Senate showdown came after senators on the left and right joined forces to support Mr. Sanders’ provision.
“At a time when our entire financial system almost collapsed, we cannot let the Fed operate in secrecy any longer,” Mr. Sanders said. “The American people have a right to know.”
But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, while insisting on a commitment to “openness” at the Fed, said in a letter to Congress the Sanders measure would “seriously threaten monetary policy independence, increase inflation fears and market interest rates, and damage economic stability and job creation.”
More* Letter: Bernanke Outlines His Opposition
* Letter: Volcker Outlines His OppositionJournal Community
Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin, in a statement, endorsed the revisions to the Sanders provision, saying they would provide a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve Board’s operations in response to the financial crisis, “while preserving the existing protections of the Federal Reserve’s independence with respect to monetary policy.”
A House bill sponsored by Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) that passed in December contains a proposal similar to the original Sanders measure. If the Senate bill passes, it will need to be reconciled in a conference committee. That keeps the pressure on the Fed alive for the coming months.
The original Sanders measure stated that it shouldn’t be “construed as interference in or dictation of monetary policy.” But the Fed and administration warned that would allow auditors to interview Fed policy makers and staffers about monetary policy, thereby allowing congressional critics to pressure the Fed and undermine its independence.
Like most other capitalist democracies, U.S. politicians have given the central bank considerable latitude to control interest rates on the theory that elected politicians are prone to keep rates too low to get more growth during their terms at the cost of more inflation later. Although sponsors of legislation insisted that wasn’t their intent, the Fed and its allies said otherwise.
“It’s a chilling kind of circumstance,” former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, an Obama adviser, said in an interview. “The more you have no clear boundaries about what’s appropriate and what’s inappropriate, you castrate the decision-making process. That’s true for any organization, but it’s particularly true when you get into the sensitivities of monetary policy that can generate speculative waves in financial markets and speculation in people’s minds,” said Mr. Volcker, who also urged lawmakers to eliminate the audit provision.
Who’s Who in the Senate Financial OverhaulLearn more about key players in the Senate’s discussion.
View Interactive
Anil Kashyap, an economist at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, stressed that independent central banks need to be insulated from politics and make decisions several months ahead of expected trends.
“There are times when you have to start raising interest rates before the economy’s recovering. If you’re going to get audited while you do that, you know you’re going to be slower—meaning we’re going to tolerate higher inflation.”
Before the last-minute compromise, the Fed’s foes appeared to be winning, and got a major boost when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said he would side with Mr. Sanders.
Mr. Bernanke, meanwhile, returned to Washington Thursday afternoon after a morning speech in Chicago to continue pressing for changes to the Sanders bill. In the past few days, Mr. Bernanke has spoken to at least a half-dozen senators to argue the Fed’s case that the bill would deeply damage the Fed’s credibility and ability to make tough decisions about interest rates.
At least half a dozen Obama administration officials joined the blitz, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner—a former Fed official—and Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff. Administration aides credited Mr. Dodd with pushing back against the original amendment and developing an acceptable alternative.
New York Fed President William Dudley also advocated to scale back the scope of the auditing. He was among those arguing that ongoing reviews of the Fed’s regular lending to financial institutions would stigmatize the program and cripple the Fed’s role as the nation’s lender of last resort.
The Senate beat back another amendment with populist tinges, defeating 61-33 a provision that would have put strict caps on the size of the nation’s banks. Offered by a bloc of liberal Democrats, it would have capped at 10% the limit on the nation’s total insured deposits any single bank holding company could carry. It would have also set a 6% leverage limit for banks and capped their non-deposit liabilities at 2% of U.S. gross domestic product.
I think it is about time to realize how ridiculously funny this whole farce is. First off: The gang that is the Congress is not going to push through measures that will seriously jeopardize its beautiful money printing machine. It’s simply inconceivable for to happen in any meaningful way. I once thought they could, too, I have come to realize that they won’t.
The temptation of political action is enormous. I, too, fell for it for a long time. The alternatives are hard to accept and just as counter-intuitive as many libertarian solutions seem to unenlightened people in the realm of economics.
We are all perfectly aware of the mechanism of credit expansion and how the Fed is at the root of financial crises that will occur again and again. But do you seriously think president Obama or any other one of these narcissistic, self aggrandizing officials will ever give a flying rats ass?? Haha, it’s unthinkable!
An article such as the one above is just another display of the blatant and shameless lies and falsehoods that politicians and clueless academics will deliberately spread with no reservations whatsoever. We’ve heard this nonsense again and again and it’s just about time we stop pretending that this is a debate. It’s not. It’s a bunch of clowns frantically taking mental craps into the minds of a deluded populace to justify a ponzi scheme that will collapse sooner or later of its own accord. It’s funny at best. But it’s not deserving of a shred of our precious time that we could spend educating those around us about the truth and living our principles in our own lives!
By pretending that it is an intellectual debate we sanction a fundamentally corrupt process. This is not what we should be doing. We shouldn’t justify the systematic looting, theft and defrauding of the majority of the people, in short government, via attempts to participate in it. It hasn’t worked for centuries and trying it over and over again is really the mother of all abusive relationships.
The Audit The Fed efforts are a particularly tragic example. Here we are, fighting day in day out, donating enormous amounts of money, effort, etc. … for what? In order to get the government to deign to have it’s counterfeiting institution to produce a few more pieces of paper to report Congress? Do you seriously think this is going to strip this gang off its powers even one tiny bit?? Even if it did, all it would do introduce 1000s of new “regulations” that will grant more powers.
Millions of innocent and poor people have died over he past years in unconstitutional wars, millions have been thrown in to prison cells for owning or selling some piece of vegetation, our and our kids’ futures have been mortgaged off to foreign nations, corrupt union thugs, and bureaucrats, around 40% of our income per year is taken from us at the point of a gun to support the gaping black hole that is the playground of bureaucratism, and we are fighting tooth and nail about a few pieces of paper? And on top of that, paper that will be submitted to Congress??
I think we reasonable people should not degrade ourselves like that. It costs too much time, effort, and nerves. The purpose of life is happiness. We should live our values, educate our friends and family, get the bad people out of our lives, make sure we raise loved, educated, reasonable children, and over time we will change the whole world in a way that is much more fundamental than adding to the demand for the business of paper production. :)
Fed Independence in Action – Bernanke Met With 26 Lawmakers Prior to Vote
To those hopelessly lost, twisted, and clueless souls who seriously believe that 1. Fed independence (=secrecy) is a good thing and 2. the Fed is actually in any way, shape, or form independent from the government: Maybe the fact that Bernanke Met With 24 Senators After Renomination as Fed Chief will interest you:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had conversations with 18 of the 23 legislators on the Senate Banking Committee prior to their 16-7 vote this month to recommend that the full Senate confirm him to a second term.
The Fed chief had contact with 24 senators between August 4 and Nov. 30, almost all at congressional office buildings, after his Aug. 25 nomination to another four-year term as chairman by President Barack Obama. The meetings and phone calls were listed in a daybook provided by the Fed yesterday in response to Freedom of Information Act requests by Bloomberg News.
…
Bernanke also met with House lawmakers, including Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and John Larson of Connecticut, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. He lunched with Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee on Sept. 16, and spoke the same day at a Rhode Island Business Leaders Day event sponsored by Senator Jack Reed, a Democrat on the banking committee.
Aaah yes, that smacks of independence indeed …
Ron Paul on the Fed, Recessions, the Great Depression
… seriousy, I wonder if these clowns they send in again and again to defend secrecy, bailouts, and cronyism are actually highly unreceptive robots, smuggled in from Japan.
Their nonsense is debunked in every single conversation, then someone hits reset, puts on a new skin, and back in action they are!!
Ron Paul vs the Fed
… Mr. Bernanke, any response?
Peter Schiff Smacks Bernanke; Fed Officials Choke on Response
Very nice…
Obama Prepares US For Double Dip Recession
When you are meeting your biggest creditors, you better strike a disciplined tone, thus Obama warns on US public debt pile:
US President Barack Obama warned that the US economy could head into a “double-dip recession” unless urgent steps were taken to rein in mounting public debt.
The US president’s remarks – in an interview with Fox News in Beijing on Wednesday, towards the end of his eight-day tour of Asia – marked his strongest language yet on the necessity of putting public finances back on a sound footing.
“It is important though to recognise if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the US economy in a double-dip recession,” said Mr Obama.
A 10.6 per cent plunge in housing starts in October – led by collapse in the apartment business – highlighted the dilemma facing him as he seeks to tackle the deficit without undermining a fragile economy.
“It’s about as hard of a play as there is,” Mr Obama said, adding that his team was trying to set up a “pathway long term for deficit reduction” without pulling a lot of money out of the economy in the short term via tax rises or spending cuts.
The mood in the US has already swung in favour of deficit reduction, with Republicans attacking Democrats’ plans for more spending to support jobs.
Washington-based analysts said the president was probably trying to prepare public opinion for a tough budget in February – while leaving open some space for measures to reduce unemployment, now at 10.2 per cent.
It is obvious that the public has had it with excessive spending and deficits. That didn’t seem to worry the President much so far. But the Chinese government must have clearly made him understand that they have had enough as well.
The government is beginning to hit a wall. There is not a whole lot further it can go in the short term at this point. This is not to say that they will suddenly embrace true fiscal responsibility and start paying down the public debt. That will most likely continue to pile up for many years to come, just as it did in Japan. But they need to get the ongoing shortfalls of revenue vs. spending under control, hit the breaks, slow down the additions to the debt.
The worst of all is that all the recent spending sprees have made things a lot worse, artificially created demands for goods that we simply didn’t need any more of, propped up prices that needed to continue to fall, revitalized irresponsible habits that needed to end.
It is a truth that they won’t be able to get around, as I pointed out before:
The key thing to keep in mind in all of this: The recent rally, green shoots, and recovery hopes have been created and/or fueled by massive government expenses, and by a believe in the omnipotence of our leaders in Washington.
But government spending sprees, too, will have to come to an end sooner or later. On top of that, all that the recent government programs have accomplished is to get marginal individuals back to the same flawed habits, such as owning unaffordable homes, buying too many cars, etc.
The interest that the government has to pay on its debts when it runs up sky high deficits, and the taxes it will have to raise in order to make those payments, will be hanging over the recovery like a Damocles Sword. The Federal Reserve, too, will be faced with a similar situation. Let’s assume, for the sake of the argument, that lending activity on homes, cars, etc. were to pick up again. What will the Fed do then? Cut interest rates? Add more bank reserves? Surely not, quite the opposite.
Once existing stimulus programs and credit expansion attempts subside, there won’t be much left to pick up the slack. The consumer won’t be able to go back to business as usual unless he goes through a long period of reduced consumption, deleveraging, and savings, a period during which the majority of production and spending inside the US will have to be focused on capital goods, so as to restore a balanced ratio between the production of consumer goods and the production of capital goods.
At the point when these government stimuli wind down, Keynesian clowns will be jumping out of the bushes left and right, and demand that the government take on more debt and spend more money. But at some point their mindless tirades will no longer appeal to an overtaxed and overleveraged populace. Their ivory tower nonsense will be way too far detached from simple realities.
Any temporary recovery we witness now, is likely to be remembered as just that, a temporary phenomenon. All actions taken so far have set the perfect stage for a double dip recession of enormous proportions, the worst possible prolongation of the necessary correction.
What is the Fed doing?
Is there much more it can do at this point? Have you heard them announce any more of their great new lending facilities in recent months?
Most notably, the Fed has begun to repay the Treasury’s investment made at the end of last year, the so called Supplementary Financing Account. It had been hovering at around $200 billion for the previous 8 months. It has now dropped to $19 billion as per the latest weekly reports. It may be completely dissolved by the end of this month. This, to me, is one of the biggest signs that even the Fed itself has begun to wind down stimuli and is trying to get its books in order, if such a thing is even possible…
Here is Meredith Whitney’s take on the coming double dip recession:
What about private lending?
Well, forget about that one. Loans and credit are drying up at an unprecedented pace, and have just turned negative for the first time in AT LEAST 35 years:
Total US Credit and Loans have now contracted by $979 billion since their peak in October 2008:
The annual growth rate has turned negative for the first time since beginning of the the weekly recordings, and and as far as I could find now posts the biggest annual decline since the great depression:
Keep in mind that all this has happened in spite of an environment of renewed optimism and confidence that the economy will bounce back hard.
The biggest surprises and catastrophes always occur when public opinion is completely out of whack with reality. Now is such a situation. How much longer it will last no one knows. But rest assured that a double dip is on the horizon…
… and that horizon is fast approaching.
Audit the Fed Hearing Tomorrow! Your help needed now!
From John Tate, President of Campaign for Liberty:
September 24, 2009
Dear Friend of Liberty,
This Friday, the House Financial Services Committee will meet at 9 am eastern to hold a hearing on Congressman Paul’s Audit the Fed bill, HR 1207.
We have come a long way in this historic effort, but your action is needed now more than ever.
Click here to find the names of the representatives on the Financial Services Committee and to get their contact information. Even if they do not represent your district, be sure to call as many of them as you can anyway, as their work on the Committee greatly impacts every one of us.
Urge them to pass the Audit the Fed bill to the floor on its own merits and not as part of an overall package that would strengthen the Federal Reserve and further damage our economy. Transparency in our monetary system is too important to be smothered in yet another Washington regulatory bill.
If your representative is not on the Committee, please contact him as well and tell him you want to know what the Fed has done with your money. Demand a standalone vote on Audit the Fed and that he cosponsor HR 1207 if he has not yet done so.
The hearing will be streamed live on the Committee’s website.
This hearing would not have taken place if not for all of your hard work in calling, writing, faxing, and petitioning Congress to support HR 1207 and S 604, its Senate companion.
It’s incredible to see all the support we have amassed in this historic effort, but if we want to achieve a complete victory, we must now push harder than ever and turn the heat up!
Your call could have a critical impact on your representative’s decision. Contact them immediately!
In Liberty,
John Tate
President
Federal Reserve Continues to Push on a String
The AP noted today that With credit tight, Fed extends consumer loan plan:
With banks limiting the availability of auto, student and other consumer loans, the Federal Reserve said Monday it would extend a program intended to help spur more lending at low rates.
The program is set up to provide up to $1 trillion in low-cost financing to investors to buy securities backed by consumer and commercial loans. But private economists said the program, Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, has so far provided little benefit for consumers and businesses still struggling to get credit.
The program, originally set to expire at the end of the year, has two parts.
The part aimed at boosting consumer and business lending is being extended through March. The part geared toward boosting new commercial real estate lending will run through June, because of the extra time typically needed to complete such deals. Delinquency rates on such loans have soared as companies have downsized or closed their doors, the Fed has said.
TALF was created in March, part of the efforts by the Fed and the Obama administration to ease credit, stabilize the financial system and fight the recession. Under the program, the Fed allows for low-rate financing for investors to buy securities backed by credit card debt, auto loans, student loans and loans to small businesses. The market for such loans essentially froze up last fall with the eruption of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The program has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion in lending, according to the government. But participation has been scant: As of Aug. 12, the value of loans outstanding stood at just $29.6 billion.
To get an idea of how successful the Fed’s program to bring back consumer lending has been, please consider the latest update on consumer credit:
In June 2009 total consumer credit volume dropped to $2.48 trillion. It fell by $17.2 billion (0.7%) from May 2009 and a total of $110.5 billion (4.3%) since its peak in December 2008; an ongoing corollary of deflation, overall contraction, and ending consumerism.
It is important to understand what is so misguided about these ideas. We hear it again and again, how the Fed will continue to push for more credit, borrowing, lending, consumption, etc. Rarely ever do we hear the question asked “Do people want any more debt?”. The simple answer: No. People are sick and tired of debt. The Fed can try as much as it wants, it won’t be able to force lending. When people have had enough they have had enough.
Since this causality is not intuitive for everyone to understand, Robert Prechter came up with a neat example that explains the concept a little better, I already posted it before:
Jaguar Inflation
I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject so let’s try one.
It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing it with tax money. To everyone’s delight , it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so it lowers the price to $900 each. People return to the stores and buy two or three, or half a dozen. Why not? Look how cheap they are! Buyers give Jaguars to their kids and park an extra one on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in Jaguars. Alas, sales slow again, and the government panics. It must move more Jaguars, or, according to its theory – ironically now made fact – the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay their taxes so the government can keep producing more Jaguars. If Jaguars stop moving the economy will stop. So the government begins giving Jaguars away. A few more cars move out of the showrooms, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more Jaguars. They don’t care if they’re free. They can’t find a use for them. Production of Jaguars ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of Jaguars. Tax collections collapse, the factories close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to buy gasoline , so many of the Jaguars rust away to worthlessness. The number of Jaguars – at best – returns to the level it was before the program began.
The same thing can happen with credit.
It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing credit and providing it to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating credit production plants all over the country, called Federal Reserve Banks. To everyone’s delight , the banks offer the credit for sale at below market rates. People flock to the banks and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the banks cut the price again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so it lowers the price to 1 percent. People return to the banks and buy even more credit. Why not? Look how cheap it is! Borrowers use credit to buy houses, boats and an extra Jaguar to park out on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in credit. Alas, sales slow again, and the banks panic. They must move more credit, or, according to its theory – ironically now made fact – the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay the interest on their debt so the banks can keep offering more credit. If credit stops moving the economy will stop. So they start giving credit away at zero percent interest. A few more loans move through the tellers’ windows, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more credit. They don’t care if they’re free. They can’t find a use for it. Production of credit ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of credit. Interest payments collapse, banks close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to pay interest on their debts , so many bonds deteriorate away to worthlessness. The value of credit – at best – returns to the level it was before the program began.
This is exactly the situation we have in the US. People took on way more credit than they could ever pay off. They have over borrowed, over spent, over consumed. The contraction we see now is the deflationary payback for years of unprecedented profligacy. When people have had enough of something, they’ve had enough. Jaguars? Anyone?
AIG – A Ponzi Scheme, Endorsed and Bailed Out by Uncle Sam
AIG, of which, since the “rescue”, 80% is now owned by the Federal Reserve Bank, is a bloated, confusing, procrastinating, monstrous, liabilities-shifting, allegations-denying, catchphrase-uttering apparatus whose cracks are leaking left and right:
The dozens of insurance companies that make up the American International Group show signs of considerable weakness even after their corporate parent got the biggest bailout in history, a review of state regulatory filings shows.
Over time, the weaknesses could mean trouble for A.I.G.’s policyholders, and they raise difficult questions for regulators, who normally step in when an insurer gets into trouble. State commissioners are supposed to keep insurers from writing new policies if there is any doubt that they can cover their claims. But in A.I.G.’s case, regulators are eager for the insurers to keep writing new business, because they see it as the best hope of paying back taxpayers.
In the months since A.I.G. received its $182 billion rescue from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, state insurance regulators have said repeatedly that its core insurance operations were sound — that the financial disaster was caused primarily by a small unit that dealt in exotic derivatives.
My comment: This sounds a lot like the early assurances that “sub-prime” was a well contained issue that will have no spill over effects to other sectors, right Mr. Bernanke? It was obviously clear to everyone that these statements from the insurance regulators were complete and utter nonsense, right?
But state regulatory filings offer a different picture. They show that A.I.G.’s individual insurance companies have been doing an unusual volume of business with each other for many years — investing in each other’s stocks; borrowing from each other’s investment portfolios; and guaranteeing each other’s insurance policies, even when they have lacked the means to make good. Insurance examiners working for the states have occasionally flagged these activities, to little effect.
More ominously, many of A.I.G.’s insurance companies have reduced their own exposure by sending their risks to other companies, often under the same A.I.G. umbrella.
Echoing state regulators’ statements, the company said the interdependency of its businesses posed no problem and strongly disputed that any units had obligations they could not pay.
“There is absolutely no concern about the capital in these companies,” said Rob Schimek, the chief financial officer of A.I.G.’s property and casualty insurance business. The company authorized him to speak about these issues.
My comment: If there was absolutely no concern, then why does Mr. Schimek have to assure us so vehemently? What he really means is of course “There are serious, really serious, concerns about the capital in these companies but I am hoping we can hide it for as long as I am still in charge”.
Nothing is wrong with spreading risks to other companies, a practice known as reinsurance, when it is carried out with unrelated, solvent companies. It can also be acceptable in small amounts between related companies. But A.I.G.’s companies have reinsured each other to such a large extent, experts say, that now billions of dollars worth of risks may have ended up at related companies that lack the means to cover them.
“An organization like this one relies on constant, ever-growing premium volume, so it can cover and pay for the deficits,” said W. O. Myrick, a retired chief insurance examiner for Louisiana. If A.I.G.’s incoming premiums shrink, he warned, “the whole thing’s going to collapse in on itself.”
My comment: … also known as a “Ponzi scheme”.
Mr. Myrick has not fully examined all the A.I.G. subsidiaries but said his own recent review of many state filings raised serious concerns, particularly about the use of reinsurance to “bounce things around inside the holding company group.”
“That is a method used by holding companies to falsify the liabilities,” he said.
A.I.G.’s premiums have, in fact, been declining in important lines. Its ratings have fallen, and customers tend to steer clear of lower-rated insurers. To woo them back, A.I.G. has in some cases lowered its prices, competitors say. A.I.G. executives insist they would rather lose a customer than drive down prices dangerously.
A.I.G. has also pledged a share of its life insurance premiums to the Fed, to pay back about $8 billion. Details have not been provided, but consumer advocates say it is not clear how the life companies will pay future claims if their premiums are diverted.
“Eventually, there’s going to be a battle between the policyholders and the feds,” said Thomas D. Gober, a former insurance examiner who now has his own forensic accounting firm that specializes in insurance fraud. “The Fed is going to say, ‘We want our money back,’ but the law says, ‘Policyholders come first.’ It’s going to be ugly.”
Mr. Gober is a consultant for a lawsuit on behalf of A.I.G. policyholders, filed in California Superior Court in Los Angeles. The lawsuit seeks a court order requiring all A.I.G. subsidiaries doing business in California to put enough money to cover their obligations into a secure account controlled by the state treasurer.
The goal is to keep money from being moved out of California or used to finance A.I.G.’s other activities, said Maria C. Severson, a lawyer for the plaintiffs. The lawsuit also seeks to bar A.I.G. companies from soliciting new business without full disclosure of their financial condition.
The condition of A.I.G.’s individual companies is hard to see in the parent company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Those filings simply tally all the individual subsidiaries’ financial information.
The companies’ weaknesses emerge in their filings with state insurance regulators — particularly when several are reviewed together. But that appears not to happen often, because there are so many. A.I.G. has more than 4,000 units in more than 100 countries.
Responsibility for A.I.G.’s 71 American insurance companies is spread among 19 state insurance commissions, which do not conduct examinations simultaneously.
As a result, Mr. Myrick said, a conglomerate like A.I.G. “can keep moving assets around to clean up one company” at a time, when examiners were looking. He said that it would take a coordinated, multistate examination of all the insurance companies to catch this.
Mr. Schimek, speaking for the insurance companies, said that in 2005, a team of examiners had at least considered A.I.G.’s property and casualty businesses as a group.
“It was a thorough examination,” he said. “I have absolutely no concern about the integrity of the financial information that’s been filed under my watch.”
My comment: Translation: “I am absolutely and 100% concerned about the integrity of the financial information filed under my watch.”
State regulators confirmed that they believed the A.I.G. subsidiaries under their authority were solvent. Mike Moriarty, deputy insurance superintendent for New York State, said that while A.I.G. subsidiaries did not report all their reinsured obligations on their balances sheets, state regulators could “follow the trail of liabilities” and make sure they did not get lost in the holding company.
Obligations “can’t be hidden from state insurance regulators,” Mr. Moriarty said.
One A.I.G. subsidiary, the National Union Fire Insurance Company of Pittsburgh, shows what can happen by heavily relying on affiliates. Its most recent regulatory filing in Pennsylvania said it had more than enough money to pay its obligations.
But at the end of 2008, more than a third of National Union’s portfolio was invested in the stock of other A.I.G. companies, which are not publicly traded. National Union might not be able to sell all of these shares, and it is not clear what it could get for them. Many states bar insurers from investing that heavily in related companies.
Meanwhile, National Union has $42.1 billion in obligations looming off its balance sheet. These have been transferred to 56 other A.I.G. companies, through reinsurance. National Union will have to pay any of these claims and then collect from its relatives.
But it is not clear that the affiliates could pay promptly. National Union’s biggest reinsurance partner is American Home Assurance, an A.I.G. subsidiary that has taken $23.1 billion of obligations off National Union’s hands. In a New York filing, American Home reports total assets of $26.3 billion, but part of that consists of assets that cannot be used to pay claims, like furniture. It too includes a number of investments in other A.I.G. companies.
My comment: This is, by and large, one of those cascading dependencies that I was talking about in Inflation & Deflation Revisited:
The US economy has been at the center of a worldwide network of such cascading credit relationships. Central banks loaned fiat money to fractional reserve banks, those would pass it on to financial institutions which would make it available as wholesale mortgages, individual mortgage banks would take those on and make loans to homebuyers. Insurance companies would insure one or the other loan in the chain and again consider the insurance policy as good as money, using it as collateral to obtain … more credit.
Everyone insures everyone and everyone thinks everything is fine. In the meantime the money has been squandered and it will come back to haunt everyone once everyone wants to see real cash.
In addition, American Home has “unconditionally” guaranteed the obligations of 16 other A.I.G. subsidiaries, bringing the total it might have to pay to $140.6 billion.
Normally, when an insurance company weakens, regulators in its home state will first measure its capital. They may demand a weak company rebuild its capital, and if it fails, eventually bar it from selling new policies.
Like New York regulators, Pennsylvania regulators say they do not see a problem. “The insurance companies remain strong and are probably the most valuable assets within the A.I.G. structure,” said Joel Ario, Pennsylvania’s insurance commissioner. “To the best we know it, we think the companies are sound.”
My comment: Haha, well put, commissioner! Such a statement requires no further comment.
But policyholder advocates said they feared state regulators were deferring to the wishes of the Fed and Treasury, to use the insurance operations to pay back the taxpayers.
“The insurance commissioners, for whatever reason, are letting them do this,” Mr. Myrick said. “I’d be jumping out of my shoes.”
Taxpayers won’t see their money back. Why would they?? The very purpose of corporate bailouts is to rip him off! It is what we already realized months ago: Sinking Money Down a Hole.
The government should have let AIG go bankrupt right then and there. Now the Fed is stuck with a huge non-performing asset that will be worth a tiny fraction of what they paid. Who knows, most likely the obligations to policy holders will be worth much more than what was acquired, in which case the value of assets held is less than zero. The oh so “independent” Fed just needs to assure us one thing: Don’t you dare come to the taxpayer and have the Treasury reimburse you for the losses you will suffer and probably have already suffered from this hideous acquisition of AIG!
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