Hope You Enjoyed the Housing Recovery … Because It’s History
Some considerations from Richard Suttmeier:
Since the recovery in house prices began last summer, homeowners and real-estate agents have embraced what many believe is a return to normalcy (forever rising prices).
In Wall Street-fueled markets like New York City, properties are once again getting multiple bids, and optimists are chattering about a quick return to old highs. If the trend continues, friends, neighbors, and real-estate agents will no doubt soon start repeating the adage that helped inflate the housing bubble in the first place: Real-estate is always a great investment.
But the trend won’t continue, says Richard Suttmeier, strategist at ValuEngine.com.
The temporary increase in prices has been driven by government efforts to prop up the housing market, Suttmeier says, and those measures have come to an end. A new wave of foreclosures is hitting the market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become black holes into which taxpayers must shovel endless billions just to keep the mortgage engine running. Most importantly, as measured by the Case-Shiller index, housing prices are still way too high.
In most major house-price indexes, prices have already begun to roll over and head back down. Suttmeier thinks this trend will continue. In fact, he thinks prices could fall another 25% nationwide.
For a good overview of the trends that concern Suttmeier, see fund manager Whitney Tilson’s latest presentation on the housing market.
New Wave of Foreclosures
From Zillow:
Zillow recently released its first quarter Real Estate Market Reports for the nation and 135 metropolitan areas. The reports show that home values continued to decline nationwide in the first quarter, amid encouraging signs in California. However, growing negative equity and record foreclosures will likely delay a broader recovery.
The full national report, in its new, interactive format, is available at www.zillow.com/local-info or by emailing press@zillow.com. Additionally, in most areas data is available at the state, metro, county, city, ZIP and neighborhood level.
Topline National Results:
- U.S. home values fell 3.8 percent year-over-year, and declined 1 percent quarter-over-quarter, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. Home values declined year-over-year in 106 of the 135 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked by Zillow.
- Home values in several large California markets have stabilized significantly, and show tentative signs of reaching a bottom.
- Negative equity remains high with 23.3 percent of all single family homes with mortgages underwater, up from 21.4 percent in fourth quarter.
- Foreclosures reached a new peak in March, with more than one out of every thousand homes (0.11 percent) being foreclosed.
The $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit program has now run out, and so has the $6,500 repeat homebuyer program. Everyone knew that once those run out home prices would resume their natural and required path of price deflation, and foreclosures and underwater homeowners would be back in the news.
Interest Only Borrowers – “Praying for Another Boom”
Looming foreclosures are hanging over the US housing market like a Damocles Sword, in particular those that arise from interest only loans:
Edward and Maria Moller are worried about losing their house – not now, but in 2013.
That is when the suburban San Diego schoolteachers will see their mortgage payments jump, most likely beyond their ability to pay.
Like millions of buyers during the boom, the Mollers leveraged their way into a house they could not otherwise afford by taking out a loan that required them to make only interest payments at first, putting off payments on the principal for several years.
It was a “buy now, pay later” strategy on a grand scale, meant for a market where home prices went only up, and now the bill is starting to come due.
With many of these homes under water — worth less than the loans against them — many interest-only mortgages will soon become unaffordable, as the homeowners have to actually start paying principal. Monthly payments can jump by as much as 75 percent.
The Mollers owe so much more than their house is worth, and have so few options, that they are already anticipating doom.
“I’m praying for another boom,” said Mr. Moller, 34. “Otherwise, we’ll have to walk.”
Keith Gumbinger, an analyst with HSH Associates, said: “This is going to be the source of tomorrow’s troubles. The borrowers might have thought these were safe loans, but it turns out they bet the house.”
After three brutal years, evidence is growing that the housing market has turned a corner. Sales in July were the highest in a year, and August gives signs of having been even better. In nearly all major cities, home prices are now rising.
Celebration, however, might be premature. The plight of the Mollers and many others in a similar position is likely to weigh on any possible recovery for years to come.
Experts predict a steady drumbeat of defaults over much of the next decade as these interest-only loans mature. Auctioned off at low prices, those foreclosed houses could help brake any revival in home prices.
Interest-only loans are not the only type of exotic mortgage hanging over the housing market. Another big problem is homeowners with “pay option” loans; in many of these loans, principal balances are actually increasing over time.
Still, interest-only loans represent an especially large problem. An analysis for The New York Times by the real estate information company First American CoreLogic shows there are 2.8 million active interest-only home loans worth a combined total of $908 billion.
The interest-only periods, which put off the principal payments for five, seven or 10 years, are now beginning to expire. In the next 12 months, $71 billion of interest-only loans will reset. The year after, another $100 billion will reset. After mid-2011, another $400 billion will reset.
The article goes on to say that about 18% of prime interest only loans are already 60 days or longer delinquent. It is safe to assume that those will almost all be foreclosed upon when payments reset, no matter how much people pray for another boom. But on top of that, what about other interest only loans and ARMs.
You might want to look intosomething I recently referenced regarding this:
$2.5 Trillion Alt-A Mortgage Resets Are Only Still Ahead of Us:
Click on image to enlarge.Option ARMs by State (Good Night, California!):
Click on image to enlarge.
Also see what Mish posted recently on pent up foreclosure demand:
Delinquencies and Foreclosures by State
Calculated Risk has an excellent chart showing state by state totals in his post MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak at End of 2010.
Annotations in hot pink are mine.
click on chart for sharper image
Pent-Up Foreclosure Demand
The area in pink represents potential foreclosure demand. Not all of that area will be foreclosed, but some of it sure will. The “Hidden Backlog” mentioned above (and highlighted in red) is within that pink area.
Make no mistake, there won’t be another housing boom anytime soon, most likely not even in our lifetime. Those sky high housing prices of the 2000s are not coming back. Every decision you make based upon this false hope, will be but a false one.
Jobless Claims, Foreclosures & Retail Sales – A Triple Whammy
As per latest AP reports, Jobless claims up, retail sales dip unexpectedly:
There were 617,000 new jobless claims in late June, before the figures were distorted last month by a shift in the timing of temporary auto plant shutdowns. That shift caused claims to drop sharply and then jump up last month.
Claims fell steeply last week, however, when the data were no longer affected by the distortions.
Still, initial claims remain far above the roughly 325,000 that economists say is consistent with a healthy economy. New claims last fell below 300,000 in early 2007.
Including federal emergency benefit programs, 9.25 million people received unemployment compensation in the week ending July 25, the latest data available. That’s down from a record of 9.35 million the previous week. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states.
According to Realtytrac.com, new records are being set in foreclosure activity:
The foreclosure plague continued to devastate last month.
There were more than 360,000 properties with foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — an increase of 7% from June and 32% from July 2008, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. In fact, one in every 355 U.S. homes had at least one filing during July.
“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”
The jump occurred as several foreclosure moratoriums phased out. They were initiated by many states to give the administration’s foreclosure-prevention efforts time to work. But for many help did not come: The modification and refinancing programs have met with less success than hoped.
… and last but not least, retail sales fell unexpectedly:
Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July from June, a government report showed on Thursday, casting a shadow over an anticipated rebound in consumer spending in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department said total retail sales edged down 0.1 percent from increasing a revised 0.8 percent in June. Sales in June were initially reported to have risen 0.6 percent.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.7 percent in July, expecting a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” program, which gives consumers cash to swap aging gas-guzzlers for new, more fuel efficient models.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales fell 0.6 percent in July after rising 0.5 percent the prior month. Analysts had expected a 0.1 percent gain in sales excluding autos.
Gasoline station sales fell 2.1 percent in July, reflecting a retreat in gasoline prices during the month, after surging 6.3 percent in June. Excluding gasoline, retail sales nudged up 0.1 percent. Sales of building materials were down 2.1 percent in July after falling 0.6 percent in June.
Fannie Mae – Q2 Loss of $14.8 Billion – Asks for Another $10.6 Billion From Taxpayers
Fannie Mae reports a Loss of $14.8 Billion Driven by Credit-Related Expenses:
Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) reported a loss of $14.8 billion, or ($2.67) per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2009, compared with a loss of $23.2 billion, or ($4.09) per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2009. Second-quarter results were driven primarily by $18.8 billion of credit-related expenses, reflecting the ongoing impact of adverse conditions in the housing market, as well as the economic recession and rising unemployment. Credit-related expenses were partially offset by fair value gains. The company also reported a substantial decrease in impairment losses on investment securities, which was due in part to the adoption of new accounting guidance.
Taking into account unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities during the second quarter and an adjustment to our deferred tax assets due to the new accounting guidance, the loss resulted in a net worth deficit of $10.6 billion as of June 30, 2009. As a result, on August 6, 2009, the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which has been acting as our conservator since September 6, 2008, submitted a request for $10.7 billion from the U.S. Department of the Treasury on our behalf under the terms of the senior preferred stock purchase agreement between Fannie Mae and the Treasury in order to eliminate our net worth deficit. FHFA has requested that Treasury provide the funds on or prior to September 30, 2009.
Fannie Mae is continuing its efforts to support the housing market by working with lenders, loan servicers and the government to help homeowners avoid foreclosure and provide liquidity to the mortgage market. We have focused our foreclosure-prevention efforts on the implementation of the Making Home Affordable Program, which is designed to significantly expand the number of borrowers who can refinance or modify their mortgages.
*mouch mouch* What’s that sound? It’s a giant sloth feeding on lifeblood.
You can read up on how well the foreclosure prevention efforts are going:
The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes soared by nearly 15 percent in the first half of the year as more people lost their jobs and were unable to pay their monthly mortgage bills.
The mushrooming foreclosure crisis affected more than 1.5 million homes in the first six months of the year, according to a report released Thursday by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
The data show that, despite the Obama administration’s plan to encourage the lending industry to prevent foreclosures by handing out $50 billion in subsidies, the nation’s housing woes continue to spread. Experts don’t expect foreclosures to peak until the middle of next year.
Foreclosure filings rose more than 33 percent in June compared with the same month last year and were up nearly 5 percent from May, RealtyTrac said.
… so what do we conclude? Of course, throw more money at it!
Obama Administration Needs to Foreclose on its Foreclosure Prevention Programs
Politico writes White House’s $50B foreclosure plan a bust so far:
The Democrats’ political and policy fortunes rest on their ability to persuade voters that they’re fixing the economy. But experts say that rising foreclosures will only exacerbate the nation’s economic woes, pushing down home prices
, slashing state and local tax revenues and imperiling consumer confidence.“Everybody understands that getting out of this broader crisis requires that we stabilize our housing market and stem the tide of foreclosures,” Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) said in a hearing Thursday. But in unusually harsh words for a Democrat, Dodd said that the Obama administration’s progress in stopping foreclosures has been “disgraceful” so far.
“It’s just hard to explain to the working families in America how it is we could move so fast with extraordinarily complicated deals with the huge financial institutions, and we are moving so incredibly slowly, mired in paperwork, in rules, in talking to banks back home,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).
The foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc. reported Thursday that the number of homeowners in foreclosure in the first six months of 2009 was up 15 percent from the same time period a year ago.
The Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan research and policy organization, projects at least 2.4 million additional foreclosure starts this year, causing nearly 70 million surrounding households to lose a combined $500 billion in property value.
The group estimates there will be 9 million foreclosures through the end of 2012, at the cost of $2 trillion in lower home values — enough to pay for the House Democrats’ health care plan, twice.
The White House realizes the stakes. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan took the 27 participating servicers to task in a July 9 letter to their CEOs, telling them to add more staff, improve training, create an appeal path for borrowers dissatisfied with the service and fulfill other measures to do more modifications, better.
And so the circus continues. Tim Geithner’s solution to a completely failed policy: Throw more bodies on the pile, employ more people. This is, to anyone who is familiar with project management, the number one indicator that a project is failing and that the person in charge has no insight into its fundamental shortcomings and its subtleties. The administration’s policy is failing as expected. Will they admit failure? Of course not. Will they do everything possible to blame the man on the moon for it? Absolutely. Mark my words:
Obama’s ill-conceived foreclosure prevention plan is in the final steps of falling apart. The backlog that the moratorium naturally created, is beginning to flood the market.
It won’t be too long and people will start asking where the $50 billion subsidies for mortgage adjustments went. And then people will start acting surprised when they find out that yet another chunk of taxpayer money went down the drain.
Foreclosures Soar at Record Pace, Up 33% from 1 Year Ago
The AP reports Foreclosures rise 15 percent in first half of 2009:
The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes soared by nearly 15 percent in the first half of the year as more people lost their jobs and were unable to pay their monthly mortgage bills.
The mushrooming foreclosure crisis affected more than 1.5 million homes in the first six months of the year, according to a report released Thursday by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
The data show that, despite the Obama administration’s plan to encourage the lending industry to prevent foreclosures by handing out $50 billion in subsidies, the nation’s housing woes continue to spread. Experts don’t expect foreclosures to peak until the middle of next year.
Foreclosure filings rose more than 33 percent in June compared with the same month last year and were up nearly 5 percent from May, RealtyTrac said.
“Despite all the efforts to date, we clearly haven’t got a handle on how to address the situation,” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing.
More than 336,000 households received at least one foreclosure-related notice in June, according to the foreclosure listing firm’s report. That works out to one in every 380 U.S. homes.
It was the fourth-straight month in which more than 300,000 households receiving a foreclosure filing, which includes default notices and several other legal notices that homeowners receive before they finally lose their homes. Banks repossessed more than 79,000 homes in June, up from about 65,000 a month earlier.
On a state-by-state basis, Nevada had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate in the first half of the year, with more than 6 percent of all households receiving a filing. Arizona was No. 2, followed by Florida, California and Utah. Rounding out the top 10 were Georgia, Michigan, Illinois, Idaho and Colorado.
The Obama administration in March launched a $50 billion plan to give the lending industry financial incentives to modify mortgages to lower payments, but it’s off to a slow start.
As of early July, about 130,000 borrowers were enrolled in three-month trial modifications under the plan, and 25 mortgage companies have signed up to receive potential payments of up to $18.6 billion, according to the Treasury Department. But analysts and housing counselors say it isn’t having much of an impact.
“The plan isn’t going well, at least not yet,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “It’s a creative plan with lots of incentives, but it’s very complex.”
In testimony prepared for delivery at a Senate hearing on Thursday, Bank of America executive Allen Jones said the company has about 80,000 loan modifications in the works under the new government guidelines, including some that aren’t in the three-month trial phase yet.
“We have achieved this level of success by devoting substantial resources to this effort,” Jones said, noting that the company has more than 7,000 employees handling calls and working on modifications. Industry experts, however, say the response from most mortgage companies has been lackluster.
“They’ve been slow to make sure they understand it and put all the processes and people in place,” said Joel Lewis, vice president of financial services at Convergys Corp., which runs call centers for the financial industry and other companies.
A week ago, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan sought to ramp up pressure on the industry, saying in a letter to participating mortgage companies that the industry needs to “devote substantially more resources to this program for it to fully succeed.” They also summoned mortgage executives to a July 28 meeting with top government officials.
Though the program was launched months ago, few companies are upgrading their computer systems to process loans rapidly, said Bill Kelvie, chairman of Overture Technologies in Bethesda, Md.
“They need to automate the process, and they need better technology, and they need to do this quickly,” he said.
Obama’s ill-conceived foreclosure prevention plan is in the final steps of falling apart. The backlog that the moratorium naturally created, is beginning to flood the market.
It won’t be too long and people will start asking where the $50 billion subsidies for mortgage adjustments went. And then people will start acting surprised when they find out that yet another chunk of taxpayer money went down the drain.
Hopefully the administration will do the right thing and put an end to their foreclosure postponement plans. This would be the right thing to do. All they have accomplished and will accomplish is to prolong the period of agony. I am afraid their conclusion will be a different one: We didn’t do enough, we need to throw more money at it.
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