Money Supply – March 2010; Supplemetary Financing Revived
Money Supply
The true money supply in March has grown slightly to $2,202 billion in March:
The annual growth rate has, however, dropped to 3.85% now:
Fed & Treasury Revive Supplementary Financing
For a little while the Treasury has been winding down its mysterious supplementary financing program.
Now, after Congress has, as always, made way for more public debt by raising the ceiling, the program is being revived:
The Treasury Department announced Tuesday that it is expanding its Supplementary Financing Program to help the Federal Reserve manage its enormous balance sheet. In a statement, Treasury said it will boost the SFA to $200 billion from its current level of $5 billion. The fund had been up to $200 billion but was scaled back when Congress delayed passage of an increase in the debt limit. Now that an expansion of the debt limit has been signed into law, the department is able to resume the program. Starting on Wednesday, Treasury will conduct the first of eight weekly $25 billion 56-day SFP bills to restore the program. The department said it will then roll the bills over. “We are committed to work with the Fed to ensure they have the flexibility to manage their balance sheet,” a Treasury official said.
I’m not sure if this really means anything to anybody. Maybe I am just not getting something here. But I would love for somebody from the Treasury or the Fed to explain to me what precisely they mean by working “with the Fed to ensure they have the flexibility to manage their balance sheet”.
Obviously something shady is going on here when they have to use such complicated constructs and fuzzy terminology.
Credit and Loans
What has been most noteworthy recently was the following development in the supply of credit and loans during the last week or March:
The last time such a severe spike occurred was in October of 2008, to no avail as credit relapsed afterwards along with a severe market crash … a pattern which is only too likely to repeat itself at this point.
Update: I just chatted with Mish about this and he told me that this recent spike is likely to be just a technicality that is due to some reclassification of some student loan.
Total US Credit & Loans – Contraction Reaches $1.5 Trillion
Total private US credit and loans have fallen to $15,374 billion, a total contraction since the peak of now $1,513 billion or 9% of the total volume at the peak in October 2008.
Deflation still seems to be in full swing …
Total Credit And Loans – February 2010 (Update)
New data is in for the final weeks of February 2010:
The annual rate of decline is now at 6.7%
Deflation or Inflation – Is Public Credit Setting Off Contration in Private Credit?
I want to follow up on something Marc Faber said the other day in the second clip.
He said that it is true that private credit is contracting, but it is being offset by a government credit expansion.
Let’s examine this suggestion a little more closely.
I regularly publish the total contraction of total private loans and credit:
This is, however, only a subset of the total credit picture. What is missing are things like corporate and government bonds, and probably some other non financial obligations.
The most comprehensive data on the total of pretty much ALL credit issued in the US is really the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Report, in particular the subsection “Level tables”.
The current flow of funds report can always be accessed here and for March 11, the latest release shows us the following:
Based on these numbers we can see that total credit, when measured across all sectors, has indeed been declining throughout 2009, by roughly $466 billion, in spite of a massive ramp up in public debt.
This simply shows us the magnitude of the deflationary forces in action.
I would also add to this that we could easily double the total credit outstanding above if we included the federal government’s Medicare and Social Security obligations which nominally amount up to $43 trillion and will never be fully paid back. There is no official number to track for this since these obligations are not reported on any balance sheet and are not traded on any markets. Thus we can only assume that their present value is declining by at least the current rate of decline in the remaining credit volume (about 0.8% through 2009).
This would bring the total contraction in credit up to around $810 billion through 2009.
I’m also not sure to what extent other municipal and state pensions are covered in the flow of funds number, but I rather doubt they are included at all. A lot of those lavish union pension plans are going to have to cut back on their commitments soon, probably the next big events to shake the markets, along with commercial real estate defaults and property values declining.
And last but not least, it is rather unlikely that the current numbers are all marked to market. Government regulations across the board have ensured that banks and corporations can be rather creative in their reporting.
Either way, all this is a rather strong indication that Marc Faber’s assertion may not me correct.
Total US Credit & Loans – February 2010
The total volume of private credit and loans in the US has dropped to now $15,474 billion. It has fallen by now $1,468 billion since the peak in October 2008.
The annual rate of decline remains at 6.2%.
Total US Credit & Loans – January 2010
Total credit and loans are, after a brief bump over the past two months, continuing their unstoppable contraction. Since October 2008 they have contracted by $1.3 trillion to now $15.6 trillion.
Deflation is still the name of the game, no matter how much the Fed and the government try to reflate the bubble.
Total US Credit & Loans; Down $1.2 Trillion From Peak; Annual Decline Now at 7.2 Percent
Total credit and loans have now contracted by $1,218 billion (source stlouisfed.org):
The annual rate of decline has now reached 7.2%:
This is still deflation in full swing. It is an ongoing credit contraction of record proportions and it is now more rampant than ever during the financial crisis.
Total Credit & Loan Contraction Reaches $1.1 Trillion Since Peak; Volume Down 5.9% From 1 Year Ago
Total credit and loan volume in the US is now contracting at a record pace and by record levels, more than at any time since the beginning of the credit crisis, and possibly even more than ever before in US history (source stlouisfed.org):
Total credit and loan volume:
Total credit and loan – annual growth:
This is a rapid and seemingly bottomless contraction at this point. Considering that market behavior and attitudes are currently are currently suggesting the exact opposite, something is bound to blow up right in our faces somewhere and at some point sooner or later.
Total Credit and Loan Contraction Reaches $1 trillion; Volume Down 2.3% From 1 Year Ago
Total credit and loans have now contracted by $1 trillion since their peak in October 2008:
Total credit and loans have now contracted by 2.3% fro 1 year ago:
Credit and loans are contracting across the board. Year on year declines now appear to accelerate into extreme and unprecedented territories. These are not numbers from a recovering country, these are numbers from meltdownland.
US Total Credit & Loans – August 2009
The sum of total credit and loans in the US has now contracted to $16 trillion by the end of August. It has contacted by $816 billion since its peak in October 2008:
Annual credit & loan growth has now slowed down to a record low of 0.5% since inception of measuring the data:
Denninger recently had some interesting comments on the credit situation, surging charge off rates, etc. He brings in correlation debt vs. incomes which are obviously needed to service this debt.
Here is his video:
All is by and large in line with what I already wrote in Total US Credit and Loans – How Much Contraction Since Peak?.
The most important conclusion out of this is: In 2000 the Fed managed to blow up another bubble to postpone the correction that was necessary then. A housing bubble ensued. In 2007 we got our payback with a much more severe and painful correction. Now they are obviously trying it again. If they were to succeed with a temporary recovery and create some other kind of bubble (which right now I don’t see anywhere), I would indeed not rule out complete and utter disaster when the inevitable correction of that bubble ensues.
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