This is from this Friday’s BLS unemployment report:
The closest official indicator of real unemployment in the US in my opinion is U6 as I have explained before. As you can see that number has grown over the past year while the official number has remained almost the same.
Also, according to the gallup survey, even the official unemployment rate data indicates a sharp rise in unemployment which, however, will most likely only be reflected in October’s data:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September — up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month — the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September — and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday.
Unemployment is rising, sentiment is declining, Treasury and mortgage rates are on their way to all time lows again. Other market data will follow sooner or later.