June 2009 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Falls by ~473,000 – Medium Size Businesses Hit Hardest

Today’s ADP National Employment Report shows a decline in nonfram payroll employment by 473,000. Employment in construction declined for the 19th consecutive month, in finance for the 29th consecutive month:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 from May to June 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from April to May was revised by 47,000, from a decline of 532,000 to a decline of 485,000.

Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000. This is a notable improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000. Nevertheless, despite some recent indications that economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, although perhaps not as rapidly as during the last six months.

June’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 223,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 250,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 146,000, its fortieth consecutive monthly decline.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 91,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 205,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 177,000. Since reaching peak employment in January 2008, small-size businesses have shed nearly 2.3 million jobs.

In June, construction employment dropped 97,000. This was its twenty-ninth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,428,000. Employment in the financial services sector dropped 29,000, the nineteenth consecutive monthly decline.

Tomorrow’s official jobs data will probably indicate something like a drop between 400,000 and 500,000.

The numbers have improved. They went from horrific to terrible. Further job losses are more than likely in the months to come, whether they will be at a horrific or at a terrible pace is rather immaterial.

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