Cash for Clunkers Runs Out, Carmakers Immediately Feel the Slump

A few days ago I pointed out :

Once existing stimulus programs and credit expansion attempts subside, there won’t be much left to pick up the slack. The consumer won’t be able to go back to business as usual unless he goes through a long period of reduced consumption, deleveraging, and savings

Now we are seeing this in action as Ford Sept. sales fall 5.1 percent:

Chrysler Group LLC and Ford Motor Co. said Thursday their September sales fell, revealing a tough hangover from this summer’s Cash for Clunkers buying spree.

Ford and other automakers got a big lift in July and August from clunkers, which spurred sales of nearly 700,000 new cars and trucks. The government program’s big discounts lured in many customers who otherwise would have waited until later in the year to walk into dealerships.

Now automakers are starting to feel the effect. Ford sales of cars and light truck fell 5.1 percent from a year ago to 114,241. The decline followed two straight months of rising sales.

Chrysler said it sold 62,197 vehicles last month, off 42 percent in the same month last year.

Cash for Clunkers and summertime production cuts kept inventories of popular models low during the month, but even so, Chrysler predicted its market share will rise 0.8 percentage points from August levels. The company increased factory output to replenish supplies.

“While we had some bright spots in September, it was still a challenging sales environment for the industry,” Peter Fong, CEO of the Chrysler brand, said in a statement.

Sales of Ford’s popular F-series trucks rose 3.5 percent, while sales of the new 2010 Taurus sedan increased more than 60 percent.

The September results fell 37.2 percent from August totals, which were boosted by the government’s Cash for Clunkers program. Two of Ford’s vehicles — the Focus and Escape — were top sellers in the program that ran during July and August and offered big discounts to buyers.

Sales of the Focus fell 64.1 percent from August, when Ford sold 25,547 of the small, fuel efficient cars. The company sold 9,182 in September.

The Escape crossover posted a month-over-month sales decline of 58.5 percent, with Ford selling 8,692 of the vehicles last month, compared to 20,933 August sales.

The Dearborn, Mich.-based automaker was the first of the automakers to release its monthly U.S. sales numbers on Thursday. Other automakers are expected to follow later in the day.

Volvo, which Ford intends to sell, posted a 16.3 percent increase.

Automakers sold a combined 1.3 million vehicles in August for a seasonally adjusted sales rate, or SAAR, of 14.1 million. Many analysts expect a SAAR of 9.3 million for September.

Shares of Ford fell 7 cents to $7.14 in midday trading.

The past 2 months were a lofty basis for some of the carmakers’ future earnings estimates. Expect those to be revised downward big time as reality kicks in.

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Bail Out Detroit? – Now??

An obviously delusional and disturbingly confused Ben Stein once again contributes to dumbing down the masses by writing what appears to be an attempt to an article: Bailout Detroit – Now:

Usually this column is about finance. It usually is an attempt to help the reader make money and have a more comfortable life. I am well aware that I have made a lot of mistakes and that in the short run many of my suggestions have turned out badly. Believe me, I am sorry. I still believe that in the long run the investment ideas will do well, but I am terribly sad that people’s hopes have been disappointed in the short run.

That’s fine Ben. If people are stupid enough to listen to you they deserve to lose money. Another lesson learned means smarter decisions in the future. He who wants to understand finance and economics should seek advice with someone who does understand finance and economics, not with someone who has absolutely no idea what he is talking about.

My best guess is that we are in a panic of sellers and market manipulators and that we will recover within a few years, but I base this on history. We may have moved into a new phase where history is irrelevant. I would be surprised if that were so, since it’s never been true before, but one never knows.

I highly recommend you end the guessing and try some specific thinking. Otherwise, how are we to believe you actually switched the brain on as you continued writing. For beginners like you: We have seen an excessive credit expansion from 1990-2007 which has diverted goods from occupations where the majority of the consumers demanded them and are now in the inevitable and soothing correction which our government is turning into a depression by not allowing it to happen. Those who are in panic mode are you and all the bailout fanatics and government officials. Had we let it occur cleanly it could have been over by now and we’d be ready to get back to useful work. Now we’re in for a decade of agony.

However, today, let’s talk about the American auto companies. They need a bailout from us taxpayers, and they have to get it yesterday. Here’s why

First, we are on thin ice economically. To allow our largest heavy industrial component to fail at this delicate moment is suicidal. To put a couple of million more Americans into unemployment is just not sensible. Mr. Barack Obama is talking about public works projects to employ hundreds of thousands of Americans -bridge building, school building, airport building. These projects take time to start, disrupt local community life, and are famously wasteful.

And that’s why we should do neither of the two. Bailing out Detroit will, from the consumers’ point of view, continue to keep resources from being employed in more useful lines of production, and force the taxpayer, the common man, to cut down on his consumption in order to be able to keep the failed operation going. Our car industry will continue its miserable decline into inefficiency and irrelevance and be back quickly for new bailouts once the money is squandered. How I know that? Oh right, maybe it’s because Chrysler got a bailout years ago and is now back asking for another one!!! You claim to be a financial adviser. Did you ever take a look at GM’s financials? The company is worth minus $60 billion. In a time like this you are asking taxpayers to sacrifice their hard earned dollars and throw them at a business that is worth LESS THAN NOTHING. Shame on you, Mr. Stein! You are one lousy adviser.

I will not again go into details as to why public works projects are going to accomplish nothing but the same. All I needed to say on this I already wrote in detail in The Trouble with Bureaucracy.

Why not be smart about it and NOT LET AMERICANS GET UNEMPLOYED IN THE FIRST PLACE? (Please pardon the shouting.) There are millions of Americans already hard at work making great American made cars and trucks. Why not keep them on the job? Wouldn’t that be smarter than allowing the whole upper Midwest to fall into oblivion and then rescue it over a fifty year period?

BECAUSE OTHER AMERICANS ARE ASKING THAT THEY BE EMPLOYED IN USEFUL OPERATIONS AND NOT IN THEIR CURRENT ONES. (Please pardon my shouting back.) You should really familiarize yourself with the simple economics 101 on entrepreneurial profit and loss. That should help you understand why factors of production should not be kept in operations that generate a loss. You are not the only person in the world, Mr. Stein. There are other Americans who, in their purchasing decisions, express their willingness for a change in Detroit.

Second, I get sick when I hear about how this or that professor says we cannot have bailouts in a free market. Really? How about the bailouts the professors get because gifts to colleges are tax free? How about the bailout they get because if they have to teach six hours a week they feel overwhelmed, while the guy on the line in Dearborn works a grueling forty and doesn’t whine about it?

Ben, if you want to make gifts to the auto companies, please, go ahead and do it. No one is holding you back. And take a lot of people with you when you go. Nothing wrong with that. And if you would like to lobby for a law that makes voluntary gifts for auto companies tax free, go ahead, you’d have my support. Until then, please spare your readers pathetic and irrelevant comparisons.

Somehow, we can give bailouts to investment banks where the top dogs make hundreds of millions a year for running the company into the ditch and wrecking the whole credit picture in America. Somehow we can have bailouts for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose bosses were trading on the credit of the taxpayers to make themselves rich while pumping up a serious housing bubble.

Exactly right, we shouldn’t have done that either. And I have consistently argued against it. You have not. Now you do. Yet, in the same article you support bailouts to car companies where the top dogs make tens of millions a year for running the company into the ditch and wrecking the whole auto picture in America. Somehow we can have bailouts for GM, Ford and Chrysler, whose bosses were making and reselling auto loans on the credit of the taxpayers to make themselves rich while pumping up a serious consumer credit bubble. It is in the realm of possibilities that you are being a hypocrite?

Amazingly, we can have whole fleets of C-130’s fly to remote areas of Iraq and Afghanistan with pallets of hundred dollar bills piled from floor to ceiling. Then we can pass them out to warlords who make tea for our soldiers one hour and blow their guts out the next. We can send CIA operatives into Somalia and give millions, maybe hundreds of millions, to warlords to fight other killers.

Ben, if you want to argue in favor of the auto bailout, it might make sense to actually talk about the auto bailout. The US foreign policy you describe above it indeed a bad one. But this does not in the slightest make the auto bailouts a good one.

But we cannot find it in our hearts to save our fellow Americans in Ohio and Michigan and Indiana who make the cars and trucks that about half of us buy? We can send billions to Germany and Japan to bail them out after they bombed us and killed our POWs and killed six million Jews. But we cannot help the children and grandchildren of the men and women who fought our war and made us the arsenal of democracy?

Something is very wrong here.

Sure we can help them. We can release them from their current inefficient occupations and enable them to be integrated into a productive modern economy. We need to do this sooner rather than later. The auto companies will fail either way. We can either prolong the agony and then leave the workers without any viable experience in modern, profitable operations, or we can let the companies restructure quickly and efficiently. The longer you want to keep them where they currently are, the worse will the situation be for the very people you are trying to help.

And please don’t tell me how GM and Ford and Chrysler have made bad cars that people don’t want. I drive only American cars, only GM cars actually, and they are the best, coolest cars I have ever driven: my 1962 Red Corvette, my mighty Cadillacs whose potent engines and super brakes have saved my life many times on the freeway. Yes, the cool people in DC and New York don’t drive American cars. But a lot of other good people do and we love them. And my Cadillac dealer down here in the desert, Jessup Motors, gives me a lot better service than my Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, or Acura dealers ever did. I would trust my life to Detroit iron any time.

That is good for you. I have no problem with your desire to buy GM cars. Nor do I have a problem with other people having the same desire. I do have a problem when you want to send IRS agents after me to take my money to subsidize your car. I don’t ask you to give me money to pay for my next ski trip either. A simple solution: Why don’t you and all other GM lovers, out of patriotism, simply pay 4 times the price you currently pay for your car. This way GM might actually break even next year.

And why are we so angry at the car companies’ executives? They get miserable pay by Wall Street standards and have much harder jobs.

I’m not sure what your high and mighty standards are that you call $14,000,000 a miserable pay. Still, I’m not angry at them. In fact, I don’t care about them. They’ll do just fine. I’m not asking more of them than a bakery owner asks of his manager: Be profitable so we can pay our bills and have some money left at the end of the day.

Why are we so angry at the unions? They negotiated their deals in good faith. It’s not their fault that roller coaster gasoline prices messed up their world.

What makes you think that bailout opponents are angry at the unions. I’m not. If they want to close deals that bankrupt their business, it’s their free decision. Just don’t come knocking on my door afterwards to help you continue make bad decisions. Make better ones next time.

They are our brothers and sisters. They fight our wars. They maintain our middle class lives. Maybe they get paid a lot, but they have been giving back for years. When will it ever be enough?

Ben, are you suggesting that GM workers are the only ones who are our brothers and sisters and fight our wars? I hope not. What do you mean by “they maintain out middle class lives”. You mean their middle class lives? Did you know that there are a lot of people who earn less than the average UAW worker? Did it ever cross your mind that there are people who are suffering quite a bit more than the GM auto worker who makes $150,000 a year? Why do you want to milk these people for tax money when they are already struggling? Have you no compassion for them?

And what about the retirees? They get the benefits they were promised. If those can be taken away, then whose benefits are safe? And do you think it will be cheaper if the government takes on those costs directly?

And what about the retirees whose pension money will be worth close to nothing once the inevitable result of this bailout mania unleashes the inevitable hyperinflation upon us? What about the taxpayers whose money can apparently be taken away without a qualm from your end.

Let’s stop the Depression before it starts. Let’s show some fairness and good faith to our own. Let’s bail out the Big Three, help them slim down, shape up, and keep making great cars and trucks. The Big Three are us and if we cannot help ourselves, who can we help?

Correct, let’s not cause another Great Depression. Let’s not again prolong the agony of a necessary correction by trying to keep prices up and failing businesses going, like we did in 1929 and 1930. Let’s help the big 3 become efficient by allowing the consumers to decide what is to happen. Let their owners go through Chapter 11 if necessary. Let the good pieces be turned into efficient and successful businesses and the useless parts be released for more useful occupations so the American car industry can once again be a force in the world rather than a caboose. The Big Three are NOT us. They are GM, Ford, and Chrysler. If they can’t help themselves, then who should?

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True Money Supply – September 09th 2008

As you can see above, the intermediary money supply data for September 08 indicates a further slowdown in true money supply growth. The effects of the bailouts of Fannie May, Freddie Mac, and AIG are not yet included in the data available, as this is from 09/08/2008.

It will most likely be available with the next set of data.

Over the past three months the impact of the slowdown of the true money supply has finally reached commodities and consumer prices, in addition to the already declining home and stock prices.

The overall outlook for the next months is a further lowering of stock, real estate, commodities, stock prices.

The US is facing a major credit crunch and an unprecedented economic correction. Rather than allowing the correction to occur freely, the government has embarked upon a path that it will not be able to back down from. One financial institution after another is being bailed out with public funds.

The Federal Reserve Bank has already filled up close to 50% of its balance sheet with bad debt. Policymakers have realized this and hence suggested setting up a completely separate entity to do just that: Buy bad debt from troubled banks, backed by taxpayer money.

I assume their reasoning is that they want to avoid turning the FED, it being the supposedly trustful lender of last resort, into a junk deposit which would sooner or later have to write down delinquent mortgage loans and factually declare bankruptcy. Instead they are trying to spread the garbage evenly across different institutions: Large banks (BofA with Countrywide, JP Morgan with Bear Stearns), the FDIC (Indymac), the Federal Reserve Bank (AIG and various bad debt instruments acquired against treasury bills in the term auction facility), and presumably the soon to be established Treasury sponsored entity.

Of course all these measures are bound to fail. With every intervention the final shakedown is merely being postponed and aggravated.

The main actors involved are clueless about the essence of the problems of credit expansion, the credit boom, and the credit crunch: The President has completely extricated himself from the process; Hank Paulson, the Treasury Secretary has fully endorsed a policy of interventionism as the panacea to the crisis; Congress leadership is hopelessly lost (as Senate majority leader Harry Reid said: “no one knows what to do”) and will most likely go along with anything that the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets will suggest, no matter how much it will cost the taxpayer. The SEC is about to announce another pseudo measure tomorrow: banning short sales on financial institutions. More prestigious businesses will be in line for bailouts shortly, in particular Citigroup, General Motors, Ford Motors, and General Electric are likely candidates.

What has been keeping the dollar strong recently is the fact that the federal reserve has not yet resorted to the ultimate weapon: hyperinflation. The money supply, as shown here has been slowing down. Most likely the Federal Reserve officials are not even aware of this because they are using wrong data to monitor the money supply. The question is if this trend will hold up with the interventionist path that the government continues to move forward with. We will keep monitoring the money supply closely.

Events indicate that we are approaching the collapse of the global financial system as we know it. As Libertarians and Austrian Economists have been warning again and again, and have been ridiculed for again and again: A fiat money paper currency system, facilitated by a central bank, will ultimately lead to the destruction of the paper currency and the collapse of the financial system.

One can only hope that once all this is over and decision makers will have to get together and frame a new financial system, maybe, just maybe people will at least sit down for a second and listen to the common sense solutions that we have been asking for over the years:

– Abolish the Federal Reserve Bank
– Allow for free market competition in the money market
– Let the market return to a gold standard
– Significantly downsize the federal government
– Abolish the federal income tax
– Abolish unconstitutional (and wasteful) federal institutions, in particular the IRS, the SEC, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Education
– Phase out the federal social security and medicare programs and let people manage their money themselves (one can only hope that at this point people realize what the government will do to your money)
– Reduce US troop presence around the globe, strengthen the defense of the homeland against foreign enemies (which is the first and foremost task of the federal government)
– and finally: legalize the US Constitution

It is disturbing that the crisis is giving me hope that people will listen. Common sense should lead people to these conclusions. Unfortunately common sense has not been very popular over the past decades.

(This article was first posted on 09/19/2008)

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