#ClimateChange Doomsday Cult Issues Another “Dire” Warning

Nima discusses the latest of many dire climate change reports.

Sources:

“U.S. impacts of climate change are intensifying, federal report says”(https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/11/23/climate-change-intensifying-economy-impacted-federal-report-finds/2093291002/)

The Technological Society by Jacques Ellul (https://archive.org/stream/JacquesEllulTheTechnologicalSociety/Jacques%20Ellul%20-%20The%20Technological%20Society_djvu.txt)

Club of Rome invents global warming hoax (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome#The_Limits_to_Growth)

Peer reviewed science papers cited:

“These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011.” (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1)

“solar variability has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since at least 1881.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825215300349)

“If the climate continues its cooling and the sun behaves in a manner not witnessed since 1800, we can be sure that climate changes are dominated by the sun and that atmospheric CO2 has a very small role in climate changes. If the same climatic patterns, cyclic warming and cooling, that occurred over the past 500 years continue, we can expect several decades of moderate to severe global cooling.” (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/multidecadal_tendencies.pdf)

“the ice winter severity index in the Baltic Sea is modulated by solar activity and solar motion in several frequency bands during the last 500 years.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612002167)

“These quantities were analyzed in two GCMs and compensating errors in the SW and LW clear-sky, cross-atmosphere radiative flux divergence were found to conspire to produce somewhat reasonable predictions of the net clear-sky divergence. Both GCMs underestimated the surface LW and SW CRF and predicted near-zero SW CRE when the measured values were substantially larger (~70 W m−2 maximum).” (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00072.1?af=R)

“These findings, together with the missing orbital signature in published dendrochronological records, suggest that large-scale near-surface air-temperature reconstructions relying on tree-ring data may underestimate pre-instrumental temperatures including warmth during Medieval and Roman times.” (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1589.html)

“(…) resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~ 1 °C.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018212003926)

“the global temperature increase during the last century is between 0.4°C and 0.7°C, where these two values are the estimates derived from raw and adjusted data, respectively.” (http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/1212/)

“Highest pre-industrial summer temperatures of the 12th century were 0.3 °C warmer than the 20th century.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379112001680)

“the periods in which solar activity agents affecting the Earth are predominantly related to solar toroidal or poloidal fields are the periods in which the North Atlantic Oscillation is negatively or positively correlated with solar activity, respectively.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612001393)

“25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000417)

Oregon Petition (http://www.petitionproject.org)

1,350+ peer reviewed research papers supporting the skeptic’s view: http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html#General

Another 100+: http://notrickszone.com/100-papers-sun-drives-climate/#sthash.7JBjco1q.uUrhUs2q.dpbs

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Has Hurricane Activity Increased?

I came across this interesting post the other day:

So have there been more natural disasters in recent years? In a word, NO.

What we have, rather, is an increase in our ability to detect hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes.

Lets take a look at the most active hurricane seasons on record:

Year # of Storms # of Hurricanes
2005 22 12
1931 21 10
1969 18 12
1995 19 11
1936 16 15

While is is true that 2005 has been recorded as the worst year ever, 1931 and 1936 are not far behind. Furthermore, note that back then there were no weather satellites to track storms from above. If a storm formed out to sea and then blew itself out, no one noticed. If a hurricane formed but didn’t hit land, it wasn’t recorded.

Given that, its entirely possible—even likely—that the worst year ever was 1931. All it would take was to miss just two tropical storms and three hurricanes.

And that doesn’t even go to the question of whether or not there were worst hurricane seasons before records were kept. Hurricanes have only been seriously tracked since the 1850s.

In terms of the worst decades for hurricanes, the 1940s rank first. The 1990s rank 10th in the 15 decades for which records are available.

What about the increasing damage that hurricanes seem to cause?

That’s easy to explain. There are more people living on the coasts—and thus more damage. In 1920, there were just 500,000 people living in Florida’s coastal areas. Today, there are more than 13 million.

More people. More things to damage.

And how about tornadoes? The recent Evansville, Indiana tornado has been used as evidence of increasing tornado violence.

In the first place, the 22 dead in Evansville in 2005 pales in comparison to the 1925 Tri State Tornado’s 625 casualties. With no disrespect intended to the people of Evansville, it just doesn’t compare.

Further, because there are more people in the United States, it is only logical to expect that there are more places for tornadoes to touch down and do damage.

Interestingly, the US weather service HAS reported a slight increase in the number of tornadoes in recent years. But the increase is attributed to the establishment of the national Doppler Radar System. We simply are getting better at finding them. Prior to a national radar system, a tornado could form in the wilderness and no one would be the wiser. Now, we spot them.

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The Golbal Warming Catastrophe in Charts

This first chart is from The big picture: 65 million years of temperature swings. It clearly depicts the extent of the current global warming catastrophe within the context of the past 10,000 years:

global temperature over past 10,000 years
Click image to enlarge

Note the infamous “hockey stick” shape at the end of the chart which clearly shows the unprecedented extent of today’s post-little-ice-age warming.

But maybe 10,000 years are not enough to establish a pattern: The next chart is from Climate4You.com, using reconstructed global temperature over the past 420,000 years based on the Vostok ice core from the Antarctica:

Vostok Temperature Reconstruction for the Past 420,000 Years
Click image to enlarge

Half a million years not floating your boat? How about a reconstruction of temperature over 65 million years:

65_Myr_Climate_Change

All in all, I think we can safely conclude that global warming is unprecedented, impending, man-made, and catastrophic. The science is settled, and if you have the slightest shred of a doubt you are an annoying, ignorant, bigoted, Republican, anti-scientific big business oil/coal/whatever lobbyist who clubs baby seals and eats their hearts for breakfast!

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Global Warming Alarmism – Are the Polar Ice Caps Melting?

My favorite part in an interesting article titled Are the Polar Ice Caps Melting?:

Perhaps the most significant factor to consider is the following report (excerpted) from the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) American consul at Norway, George Ifft:

The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen [an island 12 degrees south of the North Pole – ed.] and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.

Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared. The change in temperature has also brought about great change in the flora and fauna of the Arctic. There were few [white fish and] seal in Spitzbergen waters this year, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast. With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast. Shoals of smelt were also met with.

Ifft’s report appeared in NOAA’s Monthly Weather Review of November 1922. Whatever caused the “favorable conditions” in 1922, it is certain man-made greenhouse gases had nothing to do with it, and the rest of the world went on with the political and cultural revolutions of the 1920s without noticing any catastrophic climate change.

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Examining the Theory of Catastrophic & Man-Made Global Warming

In honor of the recent Gore-fest …

Climate Skeptic is a great source for logic and evidence in the field of climate change. Kudos to Warren!

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