Home Prices – May 2009 – Beginning to Bottom Out?

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On an annualized basis, overall home prices are down 16.83%. But compared to April they actually went up in May, by 0.44%. This is the first time since June 2006 that composite home prices have not posted a monthly drop.

Cities which still posted monthly declines were Phoenix, Los Angeles, Miami, Las Vegas, and Seattle. In all other major cities prices actually jumped up:

Top 3 monthly jumps:

1. Cleveland, OH: 4.12%
2. Dallas, TX: 1.88%
3. Boston, MA: 1.58%

Where prices still declined, the top 3 declines were as follows:

1. Las Vegas, NV: -2.58%
2. Phoenix, AZ: -0.85%
3. Miami, FL: -0.81%

Top 3 annual declines:

1. Phoenix, AZ: -34.17%
2. Las Vegas, NV: -32.01%
3. San Francisco: -26.15%

After 3 years, this is the first sign that home prices may be beginning to bottom out. It shall be pointed out that residential homes were the first asset class to fall, way ahead of everything else hit by the financial crisis. Thus it is just as likely that they will be among the first assets to bottom out while others continue to decline.

What remains to be seen is how the wave of foreclosures that has been paused via moratoria, will play out once it comes full circle.

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Money Supply Growth – May 2009


The true money supply has dropped from $2.135 trillion to $2.123 trillion, but is still up 13.07% when compared to one year ago.

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