Obama’s Handling of Economy – As of Latest Poll More Disapprove Than Approve

The latest Gallup poll of President Obma’s handling of the economy shows that 47% approve and 49% disapprove of his handling of the economy, a steady decline since the beginning of his presidency:


Click on image to enlarge.

… witness a presidency in decline. To anyone who wonders what is at the root of this development, read my post from February, Obama Makes an Unnecessary Gamble:

Obama is gambling with the future of his administration. If he doesn’t deliver true change, things will get worse and worse. If he shoves this bill down the throats of the American people, it will be him and Democrats in Congress who will have to share the blame. This bill was never his bill. It was the Congressional Democrats’ bill, led by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. Now Obama has made it his bill. All the scandals, wasteful projects and corruption that will be uncovered under the projects funded by it will be associated with him. His partisan speech today might very well have marked an early end to bipartisanship for the rest of his tenure.

His fundamental misunderstanding on this matter is that he believes these disagreements are nothing but political games. They are not. They reflect sincere and deep-rooted concerns of the direction where this country has headed. They represent the voices of millions of frustrated workers, businessmen, housewives, students, and retirees calling their representatives, jammed fax machines, letters, town hall meetings, and the like. The movement for liberty is not one of political expediency. Its members are not in it for personal, monetary, or political gain. They are in it for true conviction and with all their heart. But on top of that, it is a movement of substance, reason, logic, and sound understanding of historical and economic facts. There is nothing in the world that could change some one’s mind, once one has understood the true blessings of Freedom, Liberty, Peace, Prosperity, and Happiness. It is a patient movement. It is not in a rush. It isn’t going away. It will grow stronger year by year. To ignore it would be the biggest mistake Obama could make now.

If he continues doing it, the political retaliation will ensue sooner or later in the next Congressional elections and maybe in the next presidential elections. This is an unnecessary, harmful, and avoidable political gamble.

He had his chance, he did not take it. He did not even talk one bit about freedom, liberty, or peace. He continues to ignore the demands that come from those who are asking for nothing but to be left alone. I don’t see him realizing this. To the contrary, he is becoming more and more arrogant and shallow. This is the reason why it is rather likely that his presidency is bound to be a failure.

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Obama on Solid Track to Top Bush’s Deficits

The AP reports Budget deficit tops $1 trillion for first time:

The deficit of $1.09 trillion so far this year compares to an imbalance of $285.85 billion through the same period a year ago. The deficit for the 2008 budget year, which ended Sept. 30, was $454.8 billion, the current record in dollar terms.

Revenues so far this year total $1.59 trillion, down 17.9 percent from a year ago, reflecting higher unemployment, which cuts into payroll taxes and corporate tax receipts.

Under the administration’s budget estimates, the $1.84 trillion deficit for this year will be followed by a $1.26 trillion deficit in 2010, and will never dip below $500 billion over the next decade. The administration estimates the deficits will total $7.1 trillion from 2010 to 2019.

Just to get an idea of how reliable these government estimates are: Please note that not too long ago, in its 2009 budget document, the government said that it was expecting a deficit of $611 billion for 2009, and $300 billion and lower for the years to come.

I noted back then that these numbers are way off and in February proposed the following figures:

Now that we have updated figures on coming expenses it’s time to update the deficit predictions:

  • $1.65 trillion for 2009
  • $1.6 trillion for 2010
  • $1.95 trillion for 2011
  • $2.2 trillion for 2012

As you can see, now my 2009 figure is optimistic already. I expect same will apply to the following years. I also said in that same post:

If President Obama keeps spending like this, and really wants to cut the deficit in half by 2013, he will at one point be faced with no other choice but to raise taxes on all Americans, rich, middle class, and poor. This is of course nothing new. Taxes have been rising in the US for the past century.

Back then there was no talk about those kinds of taxes. Since then through now we have heard more and more such proposals.

A national sales tax:

With budget deficits soaring and President Obama pushing a trillion-dollar-plus expansion of health coverage, some Washington policymakers are taking a fresh look at a money-making idea long considered politically taboo: a national sales tax.

Taxes on health benefits:

An effort by Senator Max Baucus of Montana to develop compromise health care legislation has come under sharp assault by fellow Democrats who have urged him to abandon a plan to help pay for the bill by taxing some employer-provided health benefits.

A tax on generous employer-provided health plans is favored by Republicans and several centrist Democrats. But opinion polls show the idea to be generally unpopular, and several senators up for re-election in 2010, including the majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, have said they oppose it.

Health tax for high income earners:

Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives want to increase taxes on the highest- earning American families to help pay for an overhaul of the nation’s health-care system.

Legislation to be unveiled on July 13 would raise $540 billion over the next decade by setting a 1 percent surtax on couples with more than $350,000 in annual income, said Representative Charles Rangel, chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee. Higher rates would take effect for those earning $500,000 and $1 million, Rangel said.

… we shall see how many more ways and suggestions to loot and tax the people into oblivion they will come up with over the following months.

Meanwhile, contact your representatives. Tell them your opinon. Tell them you will do everything in your power to vote them out of office in 2010 if they vote for any more boondoggles.

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President Obama – Elevating Bush’s Inattention to Deficits to an Art Form

Here is a fine, uncompromising, and devastating take down of President Obama’s economic policies:

Last week, we discovered that the state of California will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

With California mired in a budget crisis, largely the result of a political impasse that makes spending cuts and tax increases impossible, Controller John Chiang said the state planned to issue $3.3 billion in IOU’s in July alone. Instead of cash, those who do business with California will get slips of paper.

The California morass has Democrats in Washington trembling. The reason is simple. If Obama’s health-care plan passes, then we may well end up paying for it with federal slips of paper worth less than California’s. Obama has bet everything on passing health care this year. The publicity surrounding the California debt fiasco almost assures his resounding defeat.

It takes years and years to make a mess as terrible as the California debacle, but the recipe is simple. All that you need is two political parties that are always willing to offer easy government solutions for every need of the voters, but never willing to make the tough decisions necessary to finance the government largess that results. Voters will occasionally change their allegiance from one party to the other, but the bacchanal will continue regardless of the names on the office doors.

California has engaged in an orgy of spending, but, compared with our federal government, its legislators should feel chaste. The California deficit this year is now north of $26 billion. The U.S. federal deficit will be, according to the latest numbers, almost 70 times larger.

Bleak Picture

The federal picture is so bleak because the Obama administration is the most fiscally irresponsible in the history of the U.S. I would imagine that he would be the intergalactic champion as well, if we could gather the data on deficits on other worlds. Obama has taken George W. Bush’s inattention to deficits and elevated it to an art form.

The Obama administration has no shame, and is willing to abandon reason altogether to achieve its short-term political goals. Ronald Reagan ran up big deficits in part because he believed that his tax cuts would produce economic growth, and ultimately pay for themselves. He may well have been excessively optimistic about the merits of tax cuts, but at least he had a story.

Obama has no story. Nobody believes that his unprecedented expansion of the welfare state will lead to enough economic growth. Nobody believes that it will pay for itself. Everyone understands that higher spending today begets higher spending tomorrow. That means that his economic strategy simply doesn’t add up.

Character Deficit

Back in the 1980s, Reagan’s own economist, Martin Feldstein, spoke up when he felt that the Reagan administration was pushing the deficit too far. Where are the economists with such character today? Apparently, the job description for economists has transformed from recommending policies that are defensible to defending whatever policies that the political hacks in the West Wing dream up.

As bad as the California legislature has been over the years, it has never entered a fiscal crisis like the one that we face today and then doubled down with a massive spending increase. In the end, when times got tough, patriotic and sensible Californians of both parties stood up and began acting like adults.

Maybe the same thing is starting to happen in our nation’s capital. The key players in Washington are Senator Evan Bayh and 15 Senate Democrats who joined him this year in forming a coalition of moderates. One thing that has distinguished moderate Democrats from the garden variety of the species is heightened concern about fiscal responsibility.

Off a Cliff

With the price tag of Obama-care likely to exceed $1 trillion, moderate Democrats face a simple choice. They can jump off the cliff with the president, or they can stay true to the principles that they have espoused throughout their careers.

There are reassuring signs that principle is winning. One of the most expensive components of the Obama plan is the so- called public-insurance option, which opponents fear would result in massive government subsidies. Senator Mary Landrieu said that she is “not open” to a public option that will compete with private insurance.

Many other Democratic Senators, including Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Tom Carper, also oppose the public option. As the cost estimates increase and support wanes, the Senate Finance Committee is even going as far as to pursue its own health-care plan, meaning that the health-care end game is now in sight.

Tax Bite

Moderates might support Obama’s health-care objectives if the bill also included tax increases to cover the spending increases. But those tax increases would likely be unpopular, making it almost impossible to pass a bill.

Given the increasing public concern about deficits that heightened significantly last week because of the California crisis, there are only two possibilities left. Either the Obama plan will come crashing down or Senate Democrats will concoct some bill that has health in the title but costs almost nothing and does even less. With Al Franken arriving in the Senate and providing Democrats with a crucial 60th vote, the latter seems most likely.

…the author may be partisan or biased, but that doesn’t make one’s statements false. This administration is not going anywhere. It is caught in a mess that it won’t be able to get out of gracefully. The political retaliation will follow sooner or later as reasonable movements expose its blunders.

The only way this will not happen is if Obama manages to turn the corner and paddle back at some point. I don’t see that happening anywhere or anyhow or anytime soon. As I have said before. President Obama had the greatest of opportunities. He could have hit the ground running and changed course, do unpopular but necessary things, let the correction of the consumption business cycle run through as quickly as possible, and blame it all on the previous excesses. Instead he went full throttle in the wrong direction. He continued Bush’s fiscal policies. He mocked those who stood up for responsibility and against spending programs. He made a completely unnecessary gamble:

Obama is gambling with the future of his administration. If he doesn’t deliver true change, things will get worse and worse. If he shoves this bill down the throats of the American people, it will be him and Democrats in Congress who will have to share the blame. This bill was never his bill. It was the Congressional Democrats’ bill, led by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. Now Obama has made it his bill. All the scandals, wasteful projects and corruption that will be uncovered under the projects funded by it will be associated with him. His partisan speech today might very well have marked an early end to bipartisanship for the rest of his tenure.

His fundamental misunderstanding on this matter is that he believes these disagreements are nothing but political games. They are not. They reflect sincere and deep-rooted concerns of the direction where this country has headed. They represent the voices of millions of frustrated workers, businessmen, housewives, students, and retirees calling their representatives, jammed fax machines, letters, town hall meetings, and the like. The movement for liberty is not one of political expediency. Its members are not in it for personal, monetary, or political gain. They are in it for true conviction and with all their heart. But on top of that, it is a movement of substance, reason, logic, and sound understanding of historical and economic facts. There is nothing in the world that could change some one’s mind, once one has understood the true blessings of Freedom, Liberty, Peace, Prosperity, and Happiness. It is a patient movement. It is not in a rush. It isn’t going away. It will grow stronger year by year. To ignore it would be the biggest mistake Obama could make now.

If he continues doing it, the political retaliation will ensue sooner or later in the next Congressional elections and maybe in the next presidential elections. This is an unnecessary, harmful, and avoidable political gamble.

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Prolonged Detention – Change?

We all know that President Obama will not deliver change. Prolonged detention is just another proof…

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Budget Deficits Widen as Expected

The White House announced that the budget deficit is expected to top $1.8 trillion for 2009:

With the economy performing worse than hoped, revised White House figures point to deepening budget deficits, with the government borrowing almost 50 cents for every dollar it spends this year.

The deficit for the current budget year will rise by $89 billion to above $1.8 trillion — about four times the record set just last year. The unprecedented red ink flows from the deep recession, the Wall Street bailout, the cost of President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus bill, as well as a structural imbalance between what the government spends and what it takes in.

As the economy performs worse than expected, the deficit for the 2010 budget year beginning in October will worsen by $87 billion to $1.3 trillion, the White House says. The deterioration reflects lower tax revenues and higher costs for bank failures, unemployment benefits and food stamps.

I was close with my estimate for 2009, but I also pointed out that my numbers are still fairly optimistic. Please consider President Obama’s Budget for FY 2010 – A Continuation of the Bush Era:

The president’s budget estimates tax receipts of $2.2 trillion, $2.4 trillion, $2.7 trillion, and $3 trillion for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. These estimates are laughable (…) Now that we have updated figures on coming expenses it’s time to update the deficit predictions:

* $1.65 trillion for 2009
* $1.6 trillion for 2010
* $1.95 trillion for 2011
* $2.2 trillion for 2012

I still think my numbers are assuming a very optimistic scenario and expect actual deficits to get even worse. And I repeat:

If President Obama keeps spending like this, and really wants to cut the deficit in half by 2013, he will at one point be faced with no other choice but to raise taxes on all Americans, rich, middle class, and poor. This is of course nothing new. Taxes have been rising almost consistently in the US for the past century.

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