True Gross Domestic Product Q3 2010

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The true gross domestic product has declined by another 3.63 percent to 10,010 million (= about 10 billion) gold ounces in Q3 2010.

The important ratio of consumer vs production goods has declined to now 93.16 percent.

us-consumption-as-percentage-of-gdp-q3-2010

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True GDP – Q2 2010

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The True Gross Domestic Product in Q2 2010 has dropped by 8.77% from last quarter. It is at its lowest point since Q3 1988 and thus marks a 22 year low.

What about the ratio of consumer goods vs factors of production turned out in the US at this point?

us-true-consumption-as-percentage-of-gdp-2010-08-06

This quarter it looks like the relative rise in consumer goods production, induced via various misguided government stimulus measures, has been reversed and the ratio is once again trying to get back to more sustainable levels of consumer goods vs. capital goods produced.

This is a good sign but it’s still a long way down from here.

Historically, this ratio needs to fall at least below the 89% avg., and probably a lot lower before we can speak of any meaningful correction and ensuing recovery, if there is to be one at all any time soon.

The government, so far, has done everything it can to not let this recovery occur. Instead, as I have pointed out many times, it has beautifully set the stage for a Great Depression 2.0.

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Gross Domestic Product Q4 2009 Updates; True GDP & Consumption as Percentage of GDP

True GDP Q4 2009

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True GDP in Q4 2009 has fallen to $10,655 million gold ounces, a 15.2% drop from the previous quarter.

True Consumption as Percentage of GDP

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The true consumption ratio will need to come down significantly before a true alignment of resources in the production structure toward a recovery will be possible.

A close up to the years 2000 through now:

us-true-consumption-as-percentage-of-gdp-q4-closeup-2009

Government stimulus and bailout programs since the beginning of 2008 have fundamentally accomplished one thing: The ratio of the production of consumer goods versus factors of production has been bumped up for a little while.

Road to Recovery?

Contrary what the government says, they have not lead us onto a “path to recovery”. In fact, they have done the exact opposite! They have used all means at their disposal and all the force and dedication in the world to pull people in precisely the opposite direction.

This is the outcome of all the corporate bailouts, the cash for clunkers program, the 10,000 tax credit for homebuyers and what have you. Instead of abstaining from producing overproduced consumer goods and re-aligning toward capital goods, businesses have thus continued to produce excess trash and continued to engage in overly risky activities.

The payback for supporting this nonsense will be a double dip recession, Uncle Sam sends his regards.

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True GDP Q4 2009 – Down 15.4 %

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True GDP in Q4 of 2009 has dropped by 15.4% from Q3.

Obviously the recently reported 5.7% GDP growth is a complete joke, even for the regular GDP. It is so ridiculous that I expect it to be revised downward significantly at the end of February.

Even looking at the official and available data, in my calculations I don’t get anywhere near 5.7%, more like 1.5% for the official number. I don’t know where the 5.7% is coming from. Either I am missing something or they made a mistake. But that said, the officially reported GDP  is a sham anyway, so who cares …

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True Gross Domestic Product – Q3 2009 – Down 21.8 Percent

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In Q3 of 2009, true gross domestic product has fallen to 12.14 billion gold ounces. This is a decline of 21.8 percent from Q3 2008.

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